flop top two

virran is 21/6 over 70 hands with a 0 % fold to cbet (out of 3 times), only read is "likes to limp suited cards and weak aces"


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($11.01)
CO ($2.80)
Hero (Button) ($12.93)
SB ($10.09)
BB ($12.27)
UTG ($8.14)
MP1 ($6.93)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7, A
2 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.45, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.05) 7, A, 3 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.80, MP2 calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.65) J (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $2.65, MP2 raises to $9.76 (All-In), Hero calls $7.11

River: ($22.17) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $22.17 | Rake: $1.47


ok given his low fold to cbet i probably should have bet more to squeeze out some extra river value...i think his shove here is pretty strong (maybe he is just spazzing with an AQo or ATs but i doubt it)...i have his range at JJ,77,33,AJs,A7s,A3s,73s,AJo,A7o,A3o, he probably has more pair+draws or combo draws than i am giving him but either way against this pessimistic range is still have 39.5% equity...i only need about 32% to make this call EV+ so get it in???


edit- just realized i didnt include j7s in his range (which i am 100% sure is there) so thats even more ev+ for me

I would remove JJ from his range -- I think even an 21/6 would open raise that preflop rather than limp/call. Otherwise, I like that range. I guess you have to call based on the odds.

I was going to say the same thing about JJ being in his range.

How passive/aggressive is he post flop or do you not have reads on that yet?

Seems like there just aren't that many combos of anything that is beating us. We have a blocker 7 so there is only 1 combo of 77. So 4 combos of sets total plus 6 combos of AJ (which he might raise PF).

Theres no way I'm folding here

Snap call w/top 2

even against his strong hand range (two pair, sets) you have enough equity to call because there are way more combos of each two pair hand than there are of each set. every flush draw combo or pair/flush draw combo he decided to jam on top is just more sklansky $$ for your bankroll. your sizing is fine on all streets versus this guy, too.

Hey look at that; you answered your own post in your own post.

haha yeah that's what i was thinking.

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

i only need about 32% to make this call EV+?

How did you come up with this? I am coming up with about 47%

+EV is when E>b/(b+p) right?

$7.11/($7.11+$7.95)=~0.47 or 47%

Did I do this correctly? Did I use the correct formula?

Now using the range you posted, w/o JJ, pokerstove says we have 46.838%. This being the case, from my understanding this is a hard call unless you have an extra read...

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

Snap call w/top 2

What about w/o top 2? Because, he does not have top 2...


Anyone please feel free to correct me, as I am new to figuring all of this out... I would appreciate correction so that I am not continuing in the wrong direction.

Originally Posted by Illfavor

Hey look at that; you answered your own post in your own post.

This.

[x] work double-checked

[x] work looks good (other than he won't usually show up with JJ)

Originally Posted by bhaley66

How did you come up with this? I am coming up with about 47%

+EV is when E>b/(b+p) right?

$7.11/($7.11+$7.95)=~0.47 or 47%

Did I do this correctly? Did I use the correct formula?

Now using the range you posted, w/o JJ, pokerstove says we have 46.838%. This being the case, from my understanding this is a hard call unless you have an extra read...



What about w/o top 2? Because, he does not have top 2...


Anyone please feel free to correct me, as I am new to figuring all of this out... I would appreciate correction so that I am not continuing in the wrong direction.

The pot is 15.06 so 7.11/(7.11+15.06)=32

oh ya, (b+p) is the bet being called plus the pot at the time of call... For some reason I was thinking the pot at this time, but for some reason without the amount of the raise...


thanks,
brandon

Standard cooler if he has a set.. but ya gotta call

when i read this i thought it was like a prelude to the real hand to show how he plays because i couldnt believe you were actually considering anything other than a call