Float against perceived donkbluff spikes TP2K on the turn

Button ($24.05)
SB ($29.95)
BB ($53.91)
UTG ($31.23)
Hero (MP) ($35.81)
CO ($11.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35) 4, J, 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.35) A (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $3.57???

Villain is real nitty pre-flop - 12/8, but very aggressive postflop, cbetting 75%. I checked the flop to him expecting him to donk and was going to float him, then spiked the ace on the turn. His turn cbet stat was also about 65%, so he obviously likes to barrel the turn. Whats your play here.

bet flop cos check-call is bad here vs an ubernit
note, the read that he is very aggressive postflop with 70% cbet is irrelevant, an 8% pfr player has a made hand at least that often after the flop

i think your hand is almost face up against his range, why would you float a nit OOP without a made hand? the only hand your beating on turn in his range is KK or QQ (which are discounted). whats his 3b stat? and call open stat? those will give some insight into his flatting pre range. also look at his "raise cbet" stat to see if cbetting is even profitable vs this guy, i know check calling is terrible and you are burining monies in this spot. i would bet-fold flop, check-raise flop, or check-fold depending on his flop aggression IP vs PFR.

are villain's stats 6m or FR?

Why are you c/c'ing flop to "float" OOP? Doing so implies you think that he's going to bet worse when checked to often. Why would you think this?

Basically...have a plan and ideally have reasons for this plan. You're not really explaining any of your reasoning here so I don't know how we're supposed to help you when it just looks like you're clicking buttons.

Hate the flop check/call. I think I'm cbetting almost always, and firing second barrels on good turns. Watch him call flop with 99-ish hands and fold turn.

Ya and like d0zer says, how much air do you really think he's going to have to begin with? He's a nit, and just cold-called you.

just bet the flop imo. i'd C/F here before i would C/C.

Originally Posted by acg123

i think your hand is almost face up against his range.

I don't think this is true. Our hand looks much more like a hand with sdv, think you've gotta call down now, unlucky if he's got a set or AJ. Hard to fold now when our hand is so under reped. Betting this flop is a fuck ton better than CC, you can barrell T+ And it be +ev all day, vs almost anyone with a fold button.
What was your plan for missed turns, how were you gonna make the dollaz you gonna chk call down, pray you spike an A or Q. You know he's prolly barrelling turn.

Thanks for the replies.

I post specifically hand histories where I think I played appallingly badly, largely to shame myself into thinking more in future, so all of your comments are entirely valid and food for thought.

Random thought:
Check/raise the flop!

Originally Posted by Fnord

Random thought:
Check/raise the flop!

Which might have got me away from his AJ.....

Originally Posted by Fnord

Random thought:
Check/raise the flop!

word.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Random thought:
Check/raise the flop!

Interesting. This is a spot I would never c/r but my c/r stat is insanely low so I'm looking for more places to do it. This makes a fuckton of sense because it's obv a profitable cbet spot, and if we were villain and were checked to we'd prolly bet the flop ourselves so yeah, great way to make the standard cbet spot more profitable. Seems so ldo now.

Flop c/r is more a trick to frustrate opponents who bet too often when checked to.

bet
check/fold
check/raise

Would all be pretty reasonable lines here depending on dynamics and some desire to mix it up.

I really hate check/call here because we're out of position and 6 handed vs a TAG button flat I don't think we have enough showdown equity against most bet ranges.