Facing PSB on River w/TP

Villain is 24/12 over 100 hands with healthy 8% 3bet, seemingly aware of flop texture, position, etc so by no means a complete donk. Has been alpha at table for few orbits.

A few hands ago I flat his 3bet OOP w/JJ and c/r all-in on 9 high drawy board where he folded after tanking and writing "Wow." in chat box. I think he may have folded something as strong QQ as I'd been playing really tight with him on my immediate left.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP ($69.03)
CO ($19.68)
Button ($20.51)
SB ($17.46)
BB ($4.30)
Hero (UTG) ($23.66)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10, K
Hero bets $0.70, MP calls $0.70, 4 folds

Flop: ($1.70) 5, 3, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.27, MP calls $1.27

Turn: ($4.24) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $3.18, Hero calls $3.18

River: ($10.60) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $10.60, Hero ??

Plan was to c/c River but his PSB threw me off a bit and I thought opinions might differ as to whether not a call is good here. Thanks for reviewing. Looking forward to feedback...

Read this and post your own analysis:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...in-t87954.html

Although you aren't facing an all-in, there is going to be no more betting, so the same process applies.

Spoon is right...but quickly...bet-fold turn and c-call river imo.

As played, from villain's perspective, you whiffed the flop, but cbet anyway, so he floats. You check turn when potential scare card comes out, and since you CRAIed him with your monster, he probably reads this as weakness when he fires and you merely call. The river misses your heart draw, if you had AQh, QJh, ATh, or some other heart draw, and only a very unlikely QT can make a str8.

I would think he likely has a hand with little showdown value (a bluff) or puts you on a hand with showdown value that can call a pot-sized river bet.

What do you guys think of that?

Range is A. Sets, two pair, KQ (not likely AK without a 3bet)
B. KT-, JX, TT (meh, unlikely), A9 that thinks you missed
C. Air, A high.

dontezuma, i like your assessment and range. Makes sense to me.

Clearly it was checking this Turn that is the real problem. And my weak/passive line does widen his bluffing range significantly on the River so I now believe I should call. (i folded btw)

moral of the story: make life ez. b/f turn.

thx again

First, I'd like to point out that 3bet stats are pretty meaningless over 100 hand samples. He could seriously be 3betting only QQ+ still.

Second, does anyone not like the cbet here? It's getting floated like 100% so you probably need to fire 2-3 barrels on this board to convince him he's beat.

Or am I retarded.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

First, I'd like to point out that 3bet stats are pretty meaningless over 100 hand samples. He could seriously be 3betting only QQ+ still.

I'll try to be more relevant in the future.

and in regards to this....

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

Second, does anyone not like the cbet here? It's getting floated like 100% so you probably need to fire 2-3 barrels on this board to convince him he's beat.

Before cbetting the flop I remember thinking that any broadway on the Turn would be a good card to fire at for all the obv reasons which is why it's that much stranger that I decided to check a card that gave me a made hand. That being said I like the cbet more if there's at least one spade on the flop giving me additional Turn cards to fire at.

side note: Fortunately it just dawned on me that this hand offered me some insight into my flawed thought process. I realized what persuaded me to check the Turn was my kicker - b/c with KJ, KQ and AK I fire this Turn. The way I played it it's like I wanted to pot control which there is no real need for unless he floated me with KQ, KJ (unlikely holdings). I'm still trying to tailor my logic to suit the game; my biggest hurdle right now imo.

In regards to the 3bet stat I'm just trying to make a point not to put too much emphasis into stats. Especially ones like 3bet %. This particular one is pretty dependant on game flow, like for example, villain may be 3betting this one guy alot because he just folds 100% and doesn't adjust - but he may only be 3betting the nuts against you for whatever reason. It is however, a good overall guide to gauge how often this guy will be doing it - but it remains a guide.

One thing I have noticed is, you suck out on a reg in a 3bet pot, they may start 3betting you alot more out of spite as if to try and force 'getting even' (not a good strategy of course), or the more timid ones might even back off a bit in the future. Depending on how your opponents think, noticeable history in the past can affect how they will play towards you in the future.

The history you noted about him typing 'wow' in the chat box is interesting because this is a sign he may start changing his 3betting frequencies. I'm just thinking outside the box here, as it seems alot of players at micro/low stakes tend to adjust based on spite/ego/etc rather than doing it properly. So if he's tilting a bit because you took down that last pot, he may start loosening up or tightening up incorrectly based on his emotional state.

As for the flop/turn it would be interesting to get some feedback from other players on this as it's kind of a meh spot for me also.

if you don't bet this turn, how can you rep a king when you bet as a bluff? obviously the guy is going to be "he'll c/c a king, so he obviously has nothing, I raise"

by the guy I mean "iopq" because I realize people don't spew nearly as hard as I do

Originally Posted by iopq

if you don't bet this turn, how can you rep a king when you bet as a bluff?

By sometimes betting Kx+ and usually betting our strongest Kx hands.

Hand is fine, fold the river unless you have some compelling reason to look him up.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

The history you noted about him typing 'wow' in the chat box is interesting...

Indeed. Call me crazy but I believe this is an important detail. You are absolutely right that it "felt" like he was in a different gear. Still hard to say which exactly but since it's likely he sees me as a bit of a spewtard due to history he might be potting trying to get max value here. Make sense?

is this 6max or is this a FR table that just deteriorated? and everyone is down with raising k10 from utg? as played i def cbet, his range is strongest from utg and a cbet should get some respect if the guy is as aware as your saying. turn i DEF fire...are you trying to sucker him in or something ?!?!?!?! river idk cause i would hopefully not have gotten myself into that situation, but i guess b/f

It's 6max. KTs w/shortie in BB is a standard open for me. Again, I completely agree with betting the turn. It wasn't that I was trying to "sucker him in" but instead (as stated above) I had pot control in mind for some reason, as flawed as it may be. But the fact he knows I'm raising UTG and still not giving me due credit for it is perhaps a justification to some degree for my turn check. (?)