Exceptional sessions followed by bad sessions

Ever find your play adjusted by a run of good cards such that the next session turns out extraordinarily bad because you are still playing adjusted to good cards? Invariably, I find that the next session after an exceptional session is a loser.

Humans learn by repeatedly seeing a certain result. If you are having a really good run of cards you can easily become a chaser because you are constantly hitting. …Wow, he has a hand, man, I am just going to peel one card because if I hit my A I know I can take his stack. Implied odds are one thing, but this can become habitual if you are always hitting your draw. The other night I had an exceptional run of cards. Quads twice, at least a dozen straights, I think five sets hit, TPTK often, throw in a couple of flushes and a wrap around zahtzee[trademark Rondavu] and you have a very good evening. By the end of it I was up 6 buy-ins.

The next session ended down a little more than two buy-ins. I felt a little out of water…[as if I HAVENT been playing every night for six months]. Why is that? I think it is because I had adjusted my play expecting to hit my draws more often than the odds dictate. Dicipline, discipline, discipline. I think next time I have an exceptional run of cards I am going to vow that I take the following night off.

The good thing is that it is easy to take the long view approach, after the fact, and realize that I am still up 4 buy-ins for two days work…and that I will continue to make money in the long run.

Anyone have a similar experience?

Originally Posted by EricE

Anyone have a similar experience?

Of course. It's a classic scenerio and a common speed bump. I went through it, and many others have as well. Sometimes you go too far with your cards and variance enriches you with fantastic reward. Incorrect play always evens out though. Seperate yourself objectively and don't tolerate poor play from yourself. We're not playing musical chip stacks.

Always ask yourself why you're putting money in the pot at this moment. Is it because you have fold equity? Is it because your implied odds are too good if you hit your hand? Is it because you're addicted to that feeling you get when you hit an eight outer after calling off half your stack?

Emotion is -EV

If I have a session where I end up 1/2 to 3/4 of a buyin up, I can almost guarantee I'll have a positive return on my next session. If I end up more than 1.5 buyins up or down, I'm much more likely to lose.

Here's my earnings graph from my Crypto play. I think it corroborates my point!