been doing some work on preflop theory. could some mathematically-inclined gambler tell me if my calculations here are correct? also, let me know if anyone wants some hypothetical preflop EV problems to solve together in here, otherwise i'll leave you all alone and only post questions when i seriously cant figure out how to do something.
Both hero and villain start with 100bb effective
Hero open A8s in the CO for 8bb after 4 limpers
BU 3bets to 24bb with a range of
A2s-A9s, QQ+,AK
of this range villain folds A2s-A9s to a shove, and calls with QQ+,AK
it folds to Hero who shoves 100bb.
villain’s 3bet range breaks down as follows:
calls a 4bet:
QQ (6) + KK (6) + AA (3) + AK (12) = 27
folds to a 4bet
A2s-A9s = 8x3 = 24
when villain calls, hero's equity is
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.879% 27.73% 01.15% 51285216 2121072.00 { A8s }
Hand 1: 71.121% 69.97% 01.15% 129401472 2121072.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
possible outcomes
villain folds 47% of the time, Hero wins 37.5bb
villain calls 53% of the time, Hero wins 37.5bb + 76 = 113.5 29% of the time
villain calls 53% of the time, Hero loses 92bb 71% of the time
0.47 * 37.5 = 12.625
0.53 * (113.5 * 0.29) = 17.5
0.53 * ( 92 * 0.71) = -34.61
EV = 12.625 + 17.5 – 34.61
EV = - 4.485
thanks



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