your killin me smalls...


Fine:

Penneys example doesn't pertain to the question at hand because our range for villain in the example given (overpairs) includes JJ, a hand which removes 3 outs (the Ts)

Fish's example doesn't quite work either because you neglected any possible redraws villain may have. You assume we have 13 outs and the rest are, "bad cards".

My hand is wrong because we in fact don't have enough outs. I get this, my bad.

So the real question is, when do we have 13 outs assuming villain has any overpair?