Ok, mulled over it a bit more, and came to these conclusions:
These calculations are probably correct at any given time you are in this situation, but that doesn't imply it's a good thing to go for this as a strategy. To clarify:
Pot is $10. Opp goes AI for $10 with a hand that beats you but gets beaten by a flush. You have a flush draw and call it. So on average you make: (.37 x 30) - (.63 x 10)= +4.8 *
Even if your opponent bets twice the pot for $20 and you call, you are still up. (.37 x 40) - (.63 x 20)= +2.2
If your opp is more reserved and bets half the pot: (.37 x 20) - (.63 x 5)= +4.25
Flush draws seem profitable all of a sudden? The problem is twofold:
1. If you're holding something suited, your odds of getting a draw are 1 in 10. So 9 times out of 10 you waste money. This has to be calculated in.
2. A part of the $10 pot will be yours. If you want to talk strategy instead of 'what is best in this situation', you have to calculate this in too. In the worst case scenario, no dead money so you're actually in 50% for 37% odds.
So: It's really just as we all know.. only go for draws if enough people are in, and if you can look at the flop cheap.
But if at any time for whatever reason you find yourself chasing a draw.. don't be discouraged by even a pot-sized bet! You have the better odds there.
Another thing, specifically looking at the suited connector:
3 out of 4: you hit nothing (money lost)
1 out of 20: you hit something big: two pair, sets, flush, straight,..
1 out of 10: flush draw
1 out of 10: straight draw
* the odds are from two suited lower cards vs KK with flush draw on the flop.



Reply With Quote

