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  1. #3
    daviddem's Avatar
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    I chose not to 3bet because I would be OOP and I didn't want to call a shove with Queens if he did that as I think he would only do that with KK+.
    Your reasons are bad:
    - one good reason to 3bet would be not to want to play QQ out of position postflop without initiative against a UTG raiser, combined with the fact that he could call you with "worse" hands such as AK (say he calls you with AK, he only has about 34% chance to hit an A or K on the flop)
    - one good reason not to 3bet would be if you think he will always fold "worse" hands (such as AK) and only continue with hands that beat you (KK+).
    - another reason not to 3bet would be if you think he could 4 bet for example with AK or JJ and get you to fold the best hand.

    In this case your opp is not a super-nit, so I think I prefer to 3bet unless I have a read that he is capable of 4betting wide.

    I chose to donk bet figuring he might fold out AK, AQ and KQ if he had no spades.
    This is terrible thinking. You should be absolutely delighted if he called your bet with AK or AQ (with or without one spade), because that's exactly what makes you money. You make a value bet, you want him to call. Time to go back to the two fundamental reasons for betting: for value (to get worse hands to call) and as a bluff (to get better hands to fold). If you don't get that, read the first chapter of Easy Game vol I. Re-read also Sklansky's fundamental theorem: every time your opponent makes a mistake (ie calling with the worse hand or folding the best hand), you profit. He calls it "winning the battle of mistakes".

    Now there are arguments to donk bet here, but there are also arguments not to against such an aggressive opp:
    - you will often get raised and be at odds of what to do
    - he will often bet worse hands himself (100% cbet)
    So I think I prefer a passive and pot control approach to keep all the air in his range and check/call the flop, even if the downside is to give a free card. This is very debatable though. If I was going to donk bet, I would certainly bet smaller (60% pot is fine).

    Similarly your thinking is wrong when you form your ranges. Why would he not raise the flop with a set or AA/KK or even JJ? (he has aggressive postflop stats with 40% raise flop and 100% cbet). In his eyes, made flushes are only a small part of your range and he can value raise his made hands against your range. He could also be doing it with AsX or stuff like KsQ as a semi-bluff, and obviously also with made flushes.

    You don't fare well against the above raising range, even if there are lots of semi-bluff draws in it. If you call the raise you will be OOP for the rest of the hand and you pretty much have to fold to any further bet even if the turn bricks (if you call anything more, you will be completely committed). For these reasons, I prefer to give up on the flop. Again, it's debatable.

    As played, checking down the hand is fine imo.
    Last edited by daviddem; 05-19-2011 at 02:02 AM.
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