Myth 10: [when holding a monster/nut hand on the river] "Bet what you think he will call."
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NO!

Pot is $200. Opponent checks a marginal hand with decent showdown value. You bet $40, he calls 90% of the time. You get $36 of value.

Pot is $200. Opponent checks a marginal hand with decent showdown value. You bet $150, he calls 50% of the time. You get $75 of value.

I won't go into metagame here....



Also, my point isn't that big bets are always superior to small bets, my point was supposed to be that you should bet in a way that gives you the highest expectation, not something like "well this is the most I think he's going to call this time", as if there's a certain amount to which your opponent will always call, but not a cent more, and we're supposed to try to guess that number or something silly like that.

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