Quote Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Thoughts: How about we quit thinking about betting/raising to see: (1) Where we stand, (2) How strong he thinks he is, (3) How much he likes his hand.

Instead, lets start betting/raising for either value (worse calls often enough) or as a bluff (he folds often enough [semi-bluff]). We can even do it for protection some of the time, but value/bluff is the primary reason you will be betting/raising.

Example: Look at the flop. Lets just say we are ahead of his betting range. This automatically makes calling +EV. What if when we raise he only continues with better hands? Then raising for value is obviously incorrect, as we never have worse hands call. So a call becomes the correct play in most cases.

A raise would be silly, even though we are ahead of his betting range. Yes, he might fold often, and we win the pot. However, he would be folding a lot of hands that we beat. And when he calls, we are now behind.

I'm not saying that is the case here, just a thought. I think your logic, and others in this thread, is flawed. And it's more detrimental to your games than misplaying this one hand (if that's the case).

Oh, and my thoughts on the hand. Without reads, I likely call the turn, and fold to most river bets. Possibly value bet river if villain checks. Also, I think your range for villain is skewed. What is the likelihood of villain betting both the flop, and turn with 99/TT? Also remember, villains bluffing frequency here is likely not 0%. He could be 2-barreling with a hand like AK (overs + Gutshot) or KT (oesd), plus other hands.
I don't see how a turn call and a river fold is the line here? I'm assuming he's going to keep betting on the river without a freezer dropping...why would I call the turn if he's going to be betting that river and I'm just going to fold?

As for the raise, I don't see him only folding worse hands and only proceeding with better ones. There are many hands he may proceed with. With our raise, I may just see a free card on the turn. Maybe my logic is skewed...but the raise was not ONLY for information. I've already been told (and now understand why) we shouldn't bet solely for information. Carroters explains that it is a bonus to gain information. I try to avoid situations like these...but as played, I think I would be a bit more aggressive.