check fold tptk on river?

villain is 44/20 over 19 (lolol sample size) and he has attempted to steal 2/3 times

i have his river calling range as JJ-TT,77,33,AdKd,AdQd,AJs,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad5d,Ad 4d,Ad2d,KdQd,KJs,Kd9d,QJs,Qd9d,J9s+,98s,8d7d,7d6d, 6d5d,5d4d,AJo,KJo,QJo,J9o+

against which i have 45% and as we now know we cannot value bet with less than 50%...

when i check i think he is checking behind all worse jacks and only bets flushes/tens/89s/and boats ...a range which obviously we cannot call even this pussy bet.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($2.44)
CO ($10.20)
Button ($8.78)
Hero (SB) ($11.26)
BB ($12.36)
UTG ($3.80)
UTG+1 ($9.82)
MP1 ($10.58)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, J
5 folds, Button bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.15, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.50) J, 3, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, Button calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.30) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.90, Button calls $0.90

River: ($3.10) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2.10, Hero folds

Total pot: $3.10 | Rake: $0.20


meh looking at his stats i wanna call or bet so bad but i just donno what else hes calling down 3 streets with, for every J8s or J7s i throw in, i could also throw in a T9s QT and KT :-/....

meh

....

ps i donked flop because he had checked behind once before after opening pre so i wanted to make sure i got value from anything he was being passive with like straight and flush draws.

B/f for like 2ish and c/f seem really close here. I feel hes less likely to have Tx than Jx by the turn and flop actions though, so i probably b/f...nothing to lose sleep over though.

I like a b/f if around 2 as well maybe c/c or c/f. I think all of those are decent.

Don't forget to consider a blocking bet/fold of about $0.90 or so.

Think your line is good. You've forgotten to include a bunch of Tx that is defo in his river continuing range, so your equity is likely even worse than that to bet this river. Whatever you do don't c/c here.

I also don't think there's much merit in blocking small, since the hands he call with are either Jx are are calling any sizing or better hands. He doesn't really have anything weaker than Jx so betting really small doesn't achieve too much here imo in a sdpot where he's checking back worse jacks almost always and doesn't have many bluffs at all when he bets the river after we check.

Originally Posted by Carroters

Think your line is good. You've forgotten to include a bunch of Tx that is defo in his river continuing range, so your equity is likely even worse than that to bet this river. Whatever you do don't c/c here.

I also don't think there's much merit in blocking small, since the hands he call with are either Jx are are calling any sizing or better hands. He doesn't really have anything weaker than Jx so betting really small doesn't achieve too much here imo in a sdpot where he's checking back worse jacks almost always and doesn't have many bluffs at all when he bets the river after we check.

+1.

I don't necessarily agree though that you cannot value bet with less than 50% equity. It's just that in this case, you'll probably be raised a very high percentage of the time. Assuming that you have 45% equity (which I think is too optimistic), if villain raises about 80% of his hands and you are force to fold then you need to bet very small, like .45 for it to be profitable. But such a small bet will still be raised anyway (not to mention bad) so I think c/f is best.

edit: OTOH, this only applies if he goes crazy OTR on boards like this. c/f or b/f is close.

I don't hate the c/f, but b/f is the first thing that popped into my head. Depends on how much of a nit you want to be.

I don't necessarily agree though that you cannot value bet with less than 50% equity.

???

if you bet w/ <50% equity v 1 opponent on the river. It's not a bet for value...or am I missing something?

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

I don't necessarily agree though that you cannot value bet with less than 50% equity.

???

if you bet w/ <50% equity v 1 opponent on the river. It's not a bet for value...or am I missing something?

Maybe I got my words incorrectly. I don't know the term for it but the idea is to bet in relation to equity which will turn out to be +EV.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

I don't necessarily agree though that you cannot value bet with less than 50% equity.

???

if you bet w/ <50% equity v 1 opponent on the river. It's not a bet for value...or am I missing something?

if you dont have >50% equity then its goign to be more EV+ to check behind, regardless of whether or not its EV+ to bet still (obviously in this situation that doesnt really work cause we are oop)

To value bet we have to have >50% equity vs his calling range, it doesn't take into account the money you make from the times he folds to our bet.

44/20 and I'm assuming he's an aggressive fish, even over 19 hands. I'm 3betting pre for thinish value against a guy like that and as played I think b/f > c/f by a bunch.

If this guy was a tighter reg we should be c/fing river but not against a random who's played 44% of hands over a couple orbits.