Bluffing In 10nl When Nit Checks Turn/River

I know that bluffing in 10nl is often discouraged as many players will call with just about anything. But this is a situation in which I took a stab at the pot. I'm curious to get some feedback as to whether or not I did the right thing here or how I could have played this hand better.

I want to say that I'm not one to limp into pots. I was CO here and it was a pretty nitty crown behind me so I was going to attempt to steal the blinds. However, the maniac to my right limped in so I followed, as did a couple others.

I thought the flop hit me alright so when checked to me I bet at the flop and only had 1 caller. He was pretty nitty looking to me (#198 hands 9/8). So when he checked turn and river I took a stab at he pot, even though I was holding a whole lot of nothing.

Worth mentioning too that the villain here had a CB of 75 and a TCB of 100. Neither of which he did here. This played a part in my decision to bluff the river.


$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($3.75)
UTG+1 ($13.66)
MP1 ($18.33)
MP2 ($6.86)
hero (CO) ($11.34)
BTN ($4.73)
SB ($4.07)
BB ($10.09)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 8 players) hero is CO
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, hero calls $0.10, BTN calls $0.10, 1 fold, BB checks

Flop: ($0.45, 4 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, hero bets $0.31, 1 fold, BB calls $0.31, MP2 folds

Turn: ($1.07, 2 players)
BB checks, hero checks

River: ($1.07, 2 players)
BB checks, hero bets $0.74

bet size is way to big for what you need to accomplish here

Originally Posted by bikes

bet size is way to big for what you need to accomplish here

Noted and agreed.

Something like half pot is what I would have bet had I have made a hand.. so is that what I probably should have bet here? Risking less in the process...

maybe some will disagree with this but i am always raising this hand pre in CO to 4BB and betting turn here like 0,7$ since we have 30-35% equity vs his range and fold equity also. to a second barrel he can fold Tx, small PP and some Ax that floated flop.

Yeah, I disagree. I'd rather not put myself at risk of being limped/reraised off my hand by a maniac with a smallish stack. Neither do I want to be in big pot against him on the flop.

Originally Posted by JR9477

Yeah, I disagree. I'd rather not put myself at risk of being limped/reraised off my hand by a maniac with a smallish stack. Neither do I want to be in big pot against him on the flop.

no to all of this.

Originally Posted by derekeverett

Noted and agreed.

Something like half pot is what I would have bet had I have made a hand.. so is that what I probably should have bet here? Risking less in the process...

No, if you had a made hand this would be a fine size. This moron has no idea what you'd do with a made hand and you should defo bet more than 1/2 pot for value with one.

The reason that any bluff by you on this river should be very small is that he is pretty much never folding a J or a T (the vast majority of his made hand calling range) and is always folding busto flush and straight draws etc to a smaller bet. Therefore, the only hands you can fold out any decent % of the time are these missed draws and so you need to bet a size that loses the least to the made hands that don't fold while you do this.

If you have a value hand then it's the opposite and you should try to win the most from his pairs since the busto draws fold to either size.

It's basically a spot where your sizing should be totally unbalanced with different parts of your range.

His flop and turn C-bet stats are largely irrelevant here since he had the lead on neither street and you should expect him to check to the previous streets aggressor very frequently regardless of how strong his range is.

Originally Posted by Carroters

No, if you had a made hand this would be a fine size. This moron has no idea what you'd do with a made hand and you should defo bet more than 1/2 pot for value with one.

The reason that any bluff by you on this river should be very small is that he is pretty much never folding a J or a T (the vast majority of his made hand calling range) and is always folding busto flush and straight draws etc to a smaller bet. Therefore, the only hands you can fold out any decent % of the time are these missed draws and so you need to bet a size that loses the least to the made hands that don't fold while you do this.

If you have a value hand then it's the opposite and you should try to win the most from his pairs since the busto draws fold to either size.

It's basically a spot where your sizing should be totally unbalanced with different parts of your range.

His flop and turn C-bet stats are largely irrelevant here since he had the lead on neither street and you should expect him to check to the previous streets aggressor very frequently regardless of how strong his range is.

This makes a lot of sense to me. I have absorbed it into my brain for later recall.

I watched one of your 10nl vids from grinderschool tonight. You have a great sense of humor!