Analysis of my micro stakes reading

Two examples here, where I think hero is good to go both times. Perhaps I am on the right lines or completely underestimating the villains. Either way, advice would be good before I donk my whole roll.

The first hand is a paraphrasing an experts HH analysis.

Hand 1:
1000NL
Hero: Kd Qc. UTG raises $4. All fold. Hero calls.
Board: Ks Qd 6h. Hero checks, villain checks.
Turn: Jd. Hero bets $8. Villain minraises to $16.
River: 3s. Hero bets $10. Villain raises to $30. Hero calls.

Villain flips Jh Js and wins with a set.
Expert analysis "You're dealt KQ in the BB and you call UTG raise of $4. You flop top 2 pair and check, presumably with the intention of check raising, but villain checks too. He may want to keep the pot small with a hand with some showdown value, such as mid pockets, he could have AK/A10 for the draw or a set.

The turn is a J and you bet $8 but he minraises to $16. So he's checked in position and minraises you. This is rarely a bluff. Here it looks like A10. Flat calling is fine but raising/all in would be horrific."

My view on this is that most players I come across (especially in SNG/MTT) will happily min raise with any flop combo including JQ, KA or draw. And many with a set will just call and so I can't see how hero can get away from top two pair. Being hero, I would think my hand is good and would look to bet out to price out the straight/extract value from a lesser hand yet the expert said it's a no no - even though he himself thought villain was on a draw.

Hand 2:
200NL
Taken from http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...re-t77246.html

UTG+1 ($7.25)
MP1 ($4.65)
MP2 ($6.70)
CO ($2.58)
Button ($24.30)
Hero (SB) ($19.80)
BB ($19.40)
UTG ($19.45)

Hero: Qc Qd (SB)
Button raises to $0.40, Hero raises to $0.60, BB raises to $1.80, Button calls $1.40, Hero calls $1.20.

Flop: 4c 7c 4d. Hero bets $2.50, BB raises to $6.45, 1 fold, Hero folds.

My reply was:
"From my experience, many will reraise pf with AK and so the flop bet could just be a missed c bet. Also, if villain had KK or AA then would he really be so scared about a flop of 4 4 7 - even with the flush draw - as to go all in? That doesn't seem a way to extract maximum value.

To me, it looks like:

a) a total bluff
b) AK or
c) a smaller pp that villain is trying to protect (and is taking advantage of the low flop)

Of course this is 20NL so villain could have ATC including, KK, AA and quad 4s. Personally, I'd find it hard NOT to stack off and I also think "it's only 20nl - most are probably recreational donks who push with top pair, why the over analysis? Just push!"

But then again, that is why I am still in the BC, especially as cash is concerned."


Feedback appreciated, ta.

Originally Posted by Thunder

Hand 1:
1000NL

you're not playing 1000nl. Fold pre, or 3-bet pre. As played, bet the mf flop!

please dont read 10NL hands like you are reading 100NL hands. they are not usually the same universe. and, you will get too tricky with hands that will get called down by so much worse.

just stick to reading your level for now.

Hi guys,

I appreciate 1000NL is a bit beyond my level but the second hand was from 10/20 level - which is what I am gonna be playing at, so thoughts onmy read of that hand would be appreciated.

Thx.

First hand please tell me it's 100nl not 1000nl.

Regardless, reads are very important. I fold preflop vs. unknown. Your view about MTT/SNG players could be correct but this is ring so throw that stuff out for the most part. You will RARELY see someone without the nuts but showdown value minraise or whatever on the flop. That's just weird unless there's a lot of history in which case he'll be doing it for certain reasons that has to do with the history. Give me one reason out of bluffing, value or protection that someone would minraise on the flop with showdown value. Anyways, we want to play against a wide range here don't we? We want villain to add bluffs in his range, right? In most cases (the std play) is to c/c flop vs. an unknown (again reads are so important) to allow him to cbet the air part of his range. Turn makes the board a lot more drawwy and we are hoping to get value/protecting from worse hands and if we 3bet vs. an unknown we are going to be playing a big pot OOP vs most likely a tighter range then just his minraise range in which we could be drawing to thin outs (in almost all cases his minraise range should be weaker than his range if he continues after we 3bet). We elect to just call, to again, add more weaker hands into his range. Do you see this at all? On the river I'd c/c as opposed to leading small because we, again, allow for more of his worse shit to start putting money in because he can have missed draws, worse two pairs, pure air, etc. and we most likely win the most and lose the least because if we bet $10 and he calls, we win that amount. But if he bets out like $20, and we win, we win double the amount of our other play of betting $10. If we bet $10 and he raises, well, now we are in a bad spot and either lost the $10 or in a lot of cases we lose whatever else amount he raises as in $30 in this case.

Also - hand #2 is from 20nl not 200nl. You seem to add a 0 to each level.

Thx Kmind,

"We elect to just call, to again, add more weaker hands into his range. Do you see this at all?"

Yes I do. Cheers.

So far, in my world, top two pair is very strong. Time to reassess for FR.

Could you also look at the second hand for me?

Thx

Hand 2: No one is going to 4bet bluff ever at these stakes unless you have a read. If we our villain and hold AA or KK of course we want to get it in because 88+ will most likely get it in with us, as well as AcKc with the flush draw. I think I'd rather c/c or c/r as it gets AK to put more money in the pot imo. If we lead out, AK is folding a lot of the time. I honestly think we can fold but spoonitnow, who has a lot more experience in FR, says to shove it b/c of stack sizes. But regardless, he played really really bad preflop by just minraising. I'm not really sure how often they have TT or JJ here but to me it wouldn't seem like it enough of the time.

Originally Posted by Thunder

So far, in my world, top two pair is very strong. Time to reassess for FR.

Meh...king high can be good some hands vs. certain opponents. Stop thinking about just your hand and how it usually does in general and you'll start to realize that your hand strength is completely dependent on villain and his range.

My suggestion is to think about ranges harder. Not just like "oh he probably has this because I saw someone have that one time" but think about preflop ranges, what he can call, fold, raise, 3bai, whatever on the flop with and keep going to the later streets. See how your certain actions will manipulate his range into having the hands you want him to have.

Cool Kmind - and thx for your reply.

We're dead to a set or AA/KK (as you noted) but what about club draws and OES chasers? I see these all the time in the tourneys but what about micro stakes FR?


Also, could you explain Spoon's stack size theory?

He can't have 56 or many combos of club draws, DUCY?

Spoon/whoever would have to chime in about SPR (stack to pot ration)because I still haven't read much about it but I should. You can read more about it by searching SPR articles or buying "Professional No-limit Hold'em" which includes it. Stack sizes are always important.

Originally Posted by kmind

He can't have 56 or many combos of club draws, DUCY?

Well KA/QK clubs is deffo a possibility. Even JQ clubs, 44, 47, 77 as he was the initial raiser and I see this all the time: a raiser calling reraises because he's already committed money to the pot.

Granted it's crazy but I do see it.

KcQc is 100% not possible. JcQc is 100% not possible. 44 is soooo rare. 47 wtf man come on. 77 is also soooo rare. This guy was the initial 4bettor not initial raiser preflop.

Originally Posted by kmind

KcQc is 100% not possible. DUCY?
JcQc is 100% not possible. DUCY? 44 is soooo rare. Most villians don't cold 4b hands like this at these stakes, although given it's a LP/blind battle it could be possible, but rare. 47 wtf man come on. Can't put things like this in his range really or else you will never narrow down a range. 77 is also soooo rare. Same as 44. Maybe a little more plausible, but still rare unless the villain has reads/stats. This guy was the initial 4bettor not initial raiser preflop.

hai stacks

Thx for all the input. The point I was trying to make is that I often see numpty play (especially the few times I have sat at a cash table - the last time a guy calling a pre flop all in with A6o

And I often see people over calling reraises when they have already committed money or are trying retarded squeeze moves with junk. And it's all about figuring out whether micro cash players are too sensible for this or as loose as the ones I keep coming across. And this is why I thought QQ is good to go as it's ahead of all realistic ranges bar KK or AA.

From my tourney experience, Kc Ac is a possibility and the reraise of the flop could often be a pocket pair, 10s, Js, wanting to take advantage of the low flop.

Of course if I am totally wrong then great - I am learning the adjustments between cash and tourney.

So you think opp has AA or KK in this instance?