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 Originally Posted by seven-deuce
Do we discount previous betting rounds because that money is no longer ours and belongs to the pot?
For simplification, yes we do.
The actual answer is a bit deeper. Suppose you make 5 bet/call/fold decisions in a hand, starting with preflop. If each one is +EV or break even, then the next one can be made disregarding what has happened before. If you get to the river having a chosen a line that is at least break even at each stage, then the 2/7's win rate is enough to break even as well.
Since we don't know villain's range exactly at any given point, errors in reads or ranges can make any decision along the way -EV, and by extension we may be -EV on the river with our 2/7's expectation. In that case, however, it's not the river call that's flawed.
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