Fuck's sake, flop call is horrible. Fold or shove, there's no calling a larger than pot size bet with a fucking draw. Without reads, I'd put him on sets, aces and AK, although it's a large flop bet for AK imo. First of all, do we have any fold equity? Can villain fold AK to a shove (if he can have it after this flop bet)? Or can he have JJ or worse (I doubt it very much)? If both of these answers are no, then we have to determine if shoving is profitable when villain always calls.
How To: Analyze Calling An All-in (I realise we're not calling an all in, but if he's always calling, then we should treat the maths the same)
After some tedious maths (take the link to learn how to do it), I figure we are making a -ev move by shoving against a range of QQ-AA, assuming AA rarely folds. If villain can have AK, it's still -ev if he always calls, but AK is going to fold more often than AA, so it's probably close.
I might have messed up with my calculations, but I can't see either calling or shoving being a good move here. That said, I wouldn't be able to work that out in the time I have at the table, so I'd probably make a bad shove here.
Though I'm never, ever calling a bet of this size (relative to the pot) with a draw.
Also, the turn call is horrible. Now it's a clear fold.
(brief outline of maths)
4.53 / (4.53 + 5.73) = 0.441520468 (required equity for =ev)
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
17,820 games 0.005 secs 3,564,000 games/sec
Board: Qs 9s Kd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.066% 40.76% 00.30% 7264 54.00 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 58.934% 58.63% 00.30% 10448 54.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
---
8,910 games 0.391 secs 22,787 games/sec
Board: Qs 9s Kd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.334% 37.18% 00.15% 3313 13.50 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 62.666% 62.51% 00.15% 5570 13.50 { QQ+ }
---
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Reply With Quote
