5NL FR flopped set vs half stack - extraction

Originally Posted by kfaess

raise flop bigger and shove turn

I like this, because if he has a draw and he get to the river without hitting he'll be able to c/f easily, whereas he'll happily put his money in before that. With a 50bb stack he likely wont be able to escape from Ax anyway.

Originally Posted by Viscaro

I like this, because if he has a draw .

what draw?

Pre is good/standard. Your plan on this flop is to play for stacks, figure out how you want to do this. Raise size is good because he's short and you don't need to bet bigger + there are no scare cards for either of you. Turn he has $1.80 behind and pot is $1.27, i like bet $0.50 and then he'll have $1.30 behind on river pot of $2.30 and be pot-stuck.

Raise flop bigger/shove turn is ok too, but helps him find the fold button with the AJ in his range.

Originally Posted by daven

what draw?

QJ, J8, 78
I realise these are unlikely because his preflop range likely only includes QJs. However because it is a possibility, we should aim to get stacks in on turn because otherwise he can play river perfectly (ship when he hits, fold otherwise).
I really doubt he's capable of laying down top pair for 50bbs so it shouldn't affect how much we win in that case.
The only reason I can see for raising this small is to give him extra percieved fold equity to make it more likely he shoves over our bet. However I don't the % chance of him doing that is significantly higher than if we just put in a pot sized raise.

Originally Posted by Viscaro

QJ, J8, 78
I realise these are unlikely because his preflop range likely only includes QJs. However because it is a possibility, we should aim to get stacks in on turn because otherwise he can play river perfectly (ship when he hits, fold otherwise).
I really doubt he's capable of laying down top pair for 50bbs so it shouldn't affect how much we win in that case.
The only reason I can see for raising this small is to give him extra percieved fold equity to make it more likely he shoves over our bet. However I don't the % chance of him doing that is significantly higher than if we just put in a pot sized raise.

I raise "small" (2/3rd PSB) because I am trying to get called by the most likely part of his range at this point, which I think is KK-JJ. I think he would cbet bigger if he had an A although I can't completely exclude aces from his range at this stage. As for J8 and 78, come on, he has a PFR of 8 and is UTG+1, these are not in his range. At best he has QJs.

As played, I agree with Daven to bet the turn smaller to commit it him while making a call more tempting (maybe not as small as $0.5 because of some flush draws he might have picked up, but surely smaller than $0.9).