5nl 6m AA vs donking fish

Villain is 43/11, 3b 5, 3.1AF, 42% Agg Freq over 80 hands. Likes donk betting, for example: in the bb vs button raise, flats 89o, donks 1/3rd pot on TJ3tt flop and calls 1.5x pot sized raise (all in) from his opp

His post flop aggression is very high for such a vpip. Looks like he bets small with draws and weak hands, but in another hand I've seen him pot every street so it looks like he bets big with an actual hand.

Also seen him donk small on other occasions and bluff A high otr for 1/3rd pot with a baby flush board when his opp checked to him with a medium flush.

CO ($4.84)
Button ($4.79)
SB ($6.10)
BB ($5)
Hero (UTG) ($6.93)
MP ($2.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets $0.20, 3 folds, SB calls $0.18, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.45) 7, 3, 9 (2 players)
SB bets $0.45, Hero raises to $1.80, SB calls $1.35

Turn: ($4.05) 5 (2 players)
SB bets $4.10 (All-In)

I am having some difficulties putting him on a range here. If he has a flush draw otf, then he is betting it more aggressively than usual (not impossible if he also has 2 overcards or a pair of 7's to go with it, I guess). If he has a set or two pairs, he should shove over on the flop but who knows.

Does he ever turn 88, TT-QQ, 9x into a bluff ott, esp. if he holds a diamond?

I am pretty sure it was a call now. If I give him a range of flushes, sets and two pairs that crushes me and I add only the three Kd9 combos and the three QdQ, I already have more than enough equity to call:

Code:

Board: 7c 3d 9d 5d
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     36.564%      36.56%     00.00%                547             0.00   { AcAd }
Hand 1:     63.436%      63.44%     00.00%                949             0.00   { QcQd, QdQh, QdQs, 99, 77, 33, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd8d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd8d, JdTd, Jd8d, Td8d, 97s, Kd9c, Kd9h, Kd9s, 97o }

Plus he would probably shove his sets otf... damn, I should have tanked longer on this one before folding.

I'm of the opinion that it's pretty marginal. With the note that you had, I would have liked to put in a larger flop raise.

larger than 4x to a PSB!?

I hadn't even considered it....

I've taken the ridiculous over-bet flop jam out of my tactics since I started playing for real monies.

Is this a raise to push him off a draw? Or to price Hero into a call on diamond turns? Is it because you think Villain's range to call 4x is probably going to call any bet size?

I think it's much better to think about bet sizes relative to the pot than in terms of x times the bet of your opponent (for example if a villain bets half pot and you 3x his bet, you give him magnificent odds to call, it's a common mistake people make).

The flop raise is a pot sized raise (equivalent to a pot sized bet in terms of the odds you offer to your opponent), and it sets up the stacks to leave a PSB ott. That allows me to shove ott before he misses his draws on the river.

Overbet flop jam is great against villains who can't fold flush draws, top pair or an overpair.

In retrospect, since he did not hesitate to flat the raise, I could have bet more to leave stacks < pot size for the turn.

Now back to business: do you call or not?

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

larger than 4x to a PSB!?

I hadn't even considered it....

I've taken the ridiculous over-bet flop jam out of my tactics since I started playing for real monies.

Is this a raise to push him off a draw? Or to price Hero into a call on diamond turns? Is it because you think Villain's range to call 4x is probably going to call any bet size?

Where in the fuck did you get 4x the pot?

Originally Posted by daviddem

I think it's much better to think about bet sizes relative to the pot than in terms of x times the bet of your opponent (for example if a villain bets half pot and you 3x his bet, you give him magnificent odds to call, it's a common mistake people make).

The flop raise is a pot sized raise (equivalent to a pot sized bet in terms of the odds you offer to your opponent), and it sets up the stacks to leave a PSB ott. That allows me to shove ott before he misses his draws on the river.

Overbet flop jam is great against villains who can't fold flush draws, top pair or an overpair.

In retrospect, since he did not hesitate to flat the raise, I could have bet more to leave stacks < pot size for the turn.

Now back to business: do you call or not?

FWIW, I suggested a larger raise because of the reads.

Call is marginal.

^^ What MMM means is "4x the bet of villain when he bets a PSB". Long way to say pot sized raise.

Oh.

I suggested a larger raise size (like 2.10-2.20) because I think this Villain's calling range doesn't change very much and because if he calls then it will make our most difficult turn decisions (ie flush draw completes) less difficult.

Also, what is pushing someone off of a draw?

Originally Posted by daviddem

Now back to business: do you call or not?

Call. I'm mostly convinced Hero is behind, but Hero has NFD, so no way I'm folding.

It would be a difficult decision if Hero had A A, against a tighter villain... but given reads, it's still a call, even with no NFD.

I think the full pot sizing on the flop makes him a little less likely to have the flush/straight draws. He could also definitely play an overpair like this (especially one with a diamond). Given that, and that he could shove 79 face up, and you'd still (just about) want to call, I can't see myself folding here.

Against sets, overpairs with a diamond, 97, and LOTS of flushes/straights we are still 35-40%. Holding the A for a flush draw + blocker really helps.

I'd feel pretty good about folding AA here.