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Folding pre-flop to no raise is absurd, IMO. Hero has a top hand in a limped pot; KQs is in the top 5% of starting hands. This is not even a marginal spot, this is raising for value with a pocket that, in all likelihood, is the favorite to win.
With Villain playing 77% of their pre-flop holdings, their range is basically ATC; he/she has only folded 1 time out of 13. (I assume that you don't know Villain's CPFR stat? Not that it matters too much after 13 hands, but it does tell us something about their calling range.) This tells me villain has no idea what pre-flop play is about, and likely will play post-flop as badly.
After Villain POB's the flop and calls the c/r, Villain's range is likely Tx, 9x, 8x, 7x.
Bet on the turn? I thought the plan was to take a free card. I think I might have stuck to the original plan here. Maybe I'd try a smaller blocker bet against such a loose villain. Have you seen this Villain fold to a bet on the turn? If not, this seems like spew to me. Either way, when villain calls the turn, you have an implied odds situation built up.
Assuming all of Hero's outs are clean, that's 15 outs, so 15/46 = 32.6%, which is ~ 2:1.
(2/1)*$0.74 = $1.48 That's the amount Hero needs to win to make this a +EV bet.
$1.12 + $0.74 = $1.86 WOW. NICE!!
I was wrong, there. The turn bet is already +EV and no implied odds are needed. Cool!
Well, assuming the 15 outs were valid, Hero caught one and can V-bet here. Well played, sir. I learned something from this one.
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