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please correct my math if I' m wrong
we risk losing 28bb (our $7 bet) to win 17bb (the pot before our bet 0.35 + 1 + 2.90 = $4.25) so he needs to fold ( 17/28 x 100 ) = 60.71% of the time for it to be break even? (before rake)
To break even, you want to find the "EV=0" point. If he folds x fraction of the time you win 17bb. When he doesn't fold, we assume you always loose 28bb. So:
x*17bb+(1-x)*(-28bb)=0
x*45bb=28bb
x=28/45=0.622=62.2% (which is 28/(28+17) for quick reference)
And note that when you bet more, he has to fold more often for your play to be profitable. For example if you bet 35bb, he has to fold 35/(35+17)=67.3% of the time.
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