33 @ 10NL FR

These spots kinda suck without reads. Now my logic is that here that UTG had mainly upper pocket pairs to call this, but kinda hard to say this with no reads. The caller's range is waited towards flushes and maybe JJ-QQ.

The arugment I have for shoving here is that if I check they will check back JcJ type hands maybe some idiotic AcX (thought that's like 0% of the time) and if they shove ill be getting a little less than 3 to 1 so if they are capable of doing it with even a few combos of AcAx and KcKx. I'll be good to call.

I suspect the real question is my raising amount on the flop. If I raised even 3.80, this decision would be much clearer. This a loose calling range.
59.917% { 3d3s }
40.083% { AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KcKd, KcKh, KcKs, QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, TT, 22, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, KcQc }


TLDR: I should raise slightly more on flop, and shove turn because they call with things I beat then they bet with. And I am committed anyways.




$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG jhonnyhooker ($10)
UTG+1 Sxtcolin ($10.75)
MP1 Hero ($11.98)
MP2 MrJetfix ($10.15)
CO El_palazz ($19.10)
BTN Bensko ($10)
SB HectorTroyan ($9.30)
BB KeithStone91 ($16.08)

Pre-Flop: ($0.25, 8 players) Hero is MP1
[jhonnyhooker posts $0.10]
jhonnyhooker raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds, Bensko calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.35, 3 players)
jhonnyhooker bets $1.20, Hero raises to $3.40, Bensko calls $3.40, jhonnyhooker calls $2.20

Turn: ($11.55, 3 players)
jhonnyhooker checks, Hero ($8.18)?

reads help... why don't you have any?
flop sizing is fine

assuming they're both bad regs:
jhonnny has an overpair or flush, bensko has a flush or rare set (some 22 mostly) and maybe the occasional TT-QQ

so, you check-decide based on bensko's sizing, right? I mean, your line obviously beats QQ if you shove turn, so shoving is pretty bad

You're not getting called by worse unless they are really bad. blockbet/folding isn't an option cos you'll get the odds to call when they shove. Check/calling like $4 is a bit icky because for that to be profitable you have to either be able to fold blank rivers, or he has to have the worse hand some of the time. Definitely check tho.

Originally Posted by daven

reads help... why don't you have any?
flop sizing is fine

assuming they're both bad regs:
jhonnny has an overpair or flush, bensko has a flush or rare set (some 22 mostly) and maybe the occasional TT-QQ

so, you check-decide based on bensko's sizing, right? I mean, your line obviously beats QQ if you shove turn, so shoving is pretty bad

doubtful either has a set

but yea sorry luck when i was talking to you last night i thought the whole time it was against just johnny hooker idk what i was thinking...

but if it was just UTG, then he can stack off with QQ-AA for sure and has like 3 flush combos so i wouldnt be too worried about that, but with benzo in the hand your going to be against a lot more flushes and with 2 opps people are going to be weary with hands like overpairs

Let's say you are up against Benzo only and, as is likely, he has a flush on the turn.

If you check, he may not shove right there, he may very well slow play it or bet small to extract. Assuming that you stack him if you hit your boat on the river, you can profitably call a bet of up to $4.92 (if I didn't screw up my calcs):

- he has $6.2 behind
- pot is $11.55
- your odds of boating up are 21.7%
- say he bets $x

So you need pot odds< 0.217:
$x/(2*$x+$11.55+$6.2-$x)<0.217
$x<$4.92

edit: note that your odds get better if Johnny decides to call whatever Bensko is going to bet.

Also as mentioned above, if they have an overpair with a club, they probably don't call your shove on this turn so you don't get value from these hands. And you don't fold anything better than your hand. So I think checking and hoping for a bet that you can call profitably is correct here.

Originally Posted by oskar

You're not getting called by worse unless they are really bad. blockbet/folding isn't an option cos you'll get the odds to call when they shove. Check/calling like $4 is a bit icky because for that to be profitable you have to either be able to fold blank rivers, or he has to have the worse hand some of the time. Definitely check tho.

Well, doesn't UTG only have like 2-3 Combos of Nut flush draws? AJcc,AQcc,AKcc, and maybe KQcc.

Isn't it one of those situations that if he has nut flush he bet 100% of the time here since it is against 2 opponents and one seems to really like his hand. So him not betting weights his range towards weaker holdings. I mean only really horrible people would not shove their NF here and if he is THAT bad he might show up with some weaker JcJx here?

For the guy behind he has more flush draws but its pretty bad to call the flop bet.


It just comes down to if the guy ahead ever checks his flush here and if the guy behind ever calls with QcQx,JcJc. And maybe 22?

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

doubtful either has a set

agree, that's why i said it was rare...

!Luck, I'm not really sure what you're saying. Sure, we have the best hand most of the time, but that isn't all that important. We're only really interested in what a calling range looks like if we bet the turn.

Originally Posted by daviddem

your odds of boating up are 21.7%
- say he bets $x

So you need pot odds< 0.217:

^^ I did not look at the rest but you might want to check that part.

Originally Posted by !Luck

Well, doesn't UTG only have like 2-3 Combos of Nut flush draws? AJcc,AQcc,AKcc, and maybe KQcc.

how do we know this with zero fucking reads? and if we assume they're both regs then it doesn't much matter what utg has anyway - if we bet and get called we lose
would you be happy getting it in with 4c5c on this turn?

please don't c/f the turn

I shoved. I wasn't happy shoving but I thought it was my only options since checking hear appears to suck.

UTG folds. Other calls flips 22.

Originally Posted by !Luck

I shoved. I wasn't happy shoving but I thought it was my only options since checking hear appears to suck.

UTG folds. Other calls flips 22.

so you hit the absolute bottom of his calling range if he's a reg. nh?

Generally, when I post there is an immediate census that its lol std or !luck u dumb. In this case it is neither.

Daven and Oskar say its bad ican,newfish, m2m say its a push (well actually i don't know what ican says but if we are not checking we must be betting)

What this tells me is this is marginal spot it wont come up very often (since if it was one caller the spr would be different)

If the same spot comes up, Ill prob push again. Because at these levels vs unknowns (greater number of fish at 10nl then 100nl), I believe a JcJx may peel.

I do appreciate your input daven.

P.S. it is true that it is the bottom of his range if he is a reg but we don't know that he is a reg.

!Luck

id just ship it w/o any specific reads given positions.

the button is a bit of a concern though because it looks alot like he has a flush draw when he flats our raise. we have the nuts vs utg though

if utg has an overpair+fd and button has a flush we're still doing okay if we jam and get called in 2 spots.

Originally Posted by oskar

^^ I did not look at the rest but you might want to check that part.

Maybe I messed up? There are 3 nines, 3 twos and 3 tens that make us a full house, plus 1 three that makes us quads. That's 10 cards out of the 46 left in the deck = 21.7%

So if you are offered (implied) pot odds < 21.7% you can call profitably. No?

edit: !luck, if you had been UTG would you have called a $6.2 shove with 22 or AcX? Clearly if the guy who shoves has a flush 100% of the time, you don't have the odds to call (26.3% pot odds). So to be profitable, you would have to think that the guy who shoves does NOT have a flush or a better set (1-21.7/26.3)=17.5% of the time. I may be wrong again, but I think his call with 22 is pretty bad here.

What a I would do is prob fold to a raise on the flop if I was UTG and had AA

Wouldn't you also shove over with your 22 on the flop?

fwiw i see people all the time that cannot fold AA/KK here even 3 ways...unless i knew he was good enough to fold AA or KK here then hes getting the shove imo..only person im scared of is the guy left to act

Yeah if I had 22 I shove as well.

I'm curious what you think their calling range to a turn shove looks like.

My bad daviddem. I'm so used to doing this stuff with odds that formulas confuse me.
Anyway, the way I would do this is we have 10/46, 10 goes in 46 4.6 times, so you need to get 3.6:1 in pot odds (This is where my brain went stupid. 3.6:1 is 21.7% ldo). If he bets 5 into 11.5, you know you get 3.something to one, but not quite enough. Whatever you said should be correct anyway... 4.something... sounds good.

^^ You can do it this way within the time you have at the table easily. That's why I'm stuck doing it like this. Plus if he bets like 8 and suppose he has some money behind, how much would we have to make on the river?
We call 8 into 19.5, so we get 2.4:1. Remember we need 3.6, so we need to make 1.2*8 (because 1 in 2.4:1 represents the bet that we're calling on the turn) or a little less than $10 otr to make a turn call profitable.

It's waaaay less confusing than it sounds at first.
Obviously if you want to get the exact bet size that you can call, then you just do it whatever which way it was that you did it.