2NL 6m bottom set faces turn c/r 200bb deep

Villain is 23/15/2.2Agg over 350 hands, 2.7% 3b, 24% steal, 65% cbet, 24% WTSD, 56% W$SD

In other words pretty decent winning player, pretty straightforward, does not seem to get much out of line. The VPIP/PFR gap shows he likes to limp behind or call with speculative hands like small/mid PP or suited connectors, and that is indeed very profitable at 2NL especially in the Party Poker fishpond.

The other villain is 30/30 over 10 hands. Stupid preflop minraises show he must be bad.

BB ($5.69)
Hero (Button) ($4.03)
SB ($2.74)
UTG ($1.48)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, 4
UTG calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.02, SB bets $0.03, BB calls $0.02, UTG raises $0.04, Hero calls $0.04, SB raises $0.04, BB calls $0.04, UTG calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.02

Flop: ($0.32) 4, Q, 9 (4 players)
SB bets $0.15, BB calls $0.15, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.45, SB calls $0.30, BB calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.67) K (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.59, 1 fold, BB raises to $4.77
($1.91 behind)

My flop raise is too small (which makes me realize that the bet buttons on PP do not work as they should). I meant to do a half pot raise, which should have been $0.54 or so. Even that is probably still too small, but the flop is rather dry.

Not sure if I should pot the turn.

Vomit and fold to his c/r?

Styles vary, and I don't play much 4-handed... so take this with a grain of salt, maybe.

Pre-flop is a line I'd never take. I consider a min-raise the same as a limp at NL, and I don't play limped pots (except checking my option from BB). I raise or fold. I will call a real raise IP, but a min-raise is getting 3-bet or I'm folding.

I like the raise OTF, as it's still 3-handed and Hero has a chance of at least one villain calling. However, before Hero raises, try to pre-consider what Villains' ranges are to continue, and what turn cards are good/bad for Hero to keep firing.

Why would you fold OTT?

What is Villain's range?

What is Hero's equity against that range?

What are the pot odds?

Yeah, I know all that, I have a range in mind and I can calculate the odds and equity, no prob. What I am interested into is what others think his range is. So I am not going to write it down just yet in order not to influence the answers.

For preflop, yes I do set mine my small PP and I am profitable with them. I know it's only OK at 2NL and maybe 5NL.

Now be helpful and tell me what you think his range is after he c/r.

:sigh: OK, where's my spoon again? OK, got it.

His range after he c/r is 2 pair+, some pair + FD's, some bare FD's, and some complete BS bluffs.

I don't think anyone but you can decide how imbalanced that range will be toward draws and bluffs.

FWIW, Hero is only beat by { KK-QQ,99,JT }, which, @ 3 combos each for sets, and 16 for JT, is only 25 combos. So Villain would need precious few other hands in his range to have Hero in bad shape.

If Villain's range is { KK-QQ,99,KQs,K9s,Q9s,JTs,KQo,K9o,Q9o,JTo }, then Hero has over 50% equity OTT. How can Hero even consider folding when that range doesn't nearly include all of Villain's hands?

The following is not related to poker:

Spoiler: Show

Wow. Just wow.

I'm only trying to help and if you don't SHOW that you're thinking like a poker player in the OP, then I'm definitely going to ask you questions that seem overlooked. I'm not assuming you don't ask the questions, I'm just trying to get your thought process into the thread.

There is no "right" way to play any hand. There is no "right" strategy, either. If I assume you play like I do and tell you what I'd do, then I'm giving advice with no context. Do you agree?

Preflop, multiway and a fish in the pot:

JJ-66,AQo-AJo,KQo,AJs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s

OTF, calling 2 raises multiway on a board w/ SD:

KJs, KTs, JTs, poss. 99

After he c/rs HU...he's repping JT, it's in his range.....

That's the best i can do

preflop fine
flop raise bigger
turn meh call cos 25% and KQ/AK. He's more JT than 99 here

Originally Posted by daven

turn meh call cos 25% and KQ/AK

beg pardon?

We need something like 22-25% equity to break even on a call. Against a very pessimistic range of {JT, 99}, we only have about 19.5% equity. Adding a single combination of Q9 boosts us up to 23% equity.

It's likely that we have the top of our range on the turn, and that also makes me want to call.

As an aside, I think that the flop raise size is fine. Your range is absurdly strong when you raise here, so your bet size should be on the small end on such a dry board since you'll have no trouble getting stacks in.

Originally Posted by daven

preflop fine
flop raise bigger
turn meh call cos you only need to be good approximately 25% here and villain has KQ or AK often enough when he takes this line for you to be fine even though he is also likely to have JT and sometimes 99 here. I mean, stove your hand vs sets and TJ to figure out how many combos of non-nut hands he has to have for calling to be the right play in this spot

^ edit of my earlier post to clarify what i meant

questo è meglio. grazie

that turn bet sizing --.-

Raise pre/ 3bet the min raise. I probably raise bigger on flop, snap-call turn. It's 2NL, I am happy to get my stack in with bottom set.

OK. I'll just do my homework first and then reply to the comments.

Taking the 5% rake into account ($0.01 per $0.20 in the pot, rounded down), we need 23.2% equity to call the shove:
0=x*(6.76-0.43)-(1-x)*1.91
x=23.2%

I think his range is very nutted here. As Spoon said, my range is super strong for raising the flop and potting the turn. Personally I think 99, JT and KQ are the most likely hands here. This guy seems to play pretty much like I do, just a little looser:
- at this table with these villains, I would have played 99 and JT exactly like he did. I probably would not reraise 99 preflop because then I would most likely have to play a 3b pot postflop OOP multiway against a station, an aggro-donk and a deep stacked tagg on the button, with a hand that plays badly post flop.
- I personally would NOT shove KQ OTT against a 19/14 (me) whose line is absolutely screaming he has a set. I can't see Q9 being there either as I think he would probably raise the initial flop bet, or if he just calls the flop with Q9 then he does not shove it over a PSB when the K pops OTT.

However Spoon is smack on: if he only has JT,99 we have only 19.5% equity but add only two combos of KQ and it's a call (one combo falls just short). So yes it is probably a call, but I would hate myself for calling after he shows his straight. It would be a much clearer call against a lambda 2nl fish.

MMM, I think I have shown over my past 1000 posts that I know my math and have been clearly showing my lines of thought. As I said, I wanted to see what ranges people were coming up with before I gave mine. No offense meant, but I also think the range you gave does not make much sense (KK, QQ raise preflop, 9x does not call the flop raise and/or do not shove the turn, and he is bluffing about 0% of the time here). I don't really get your last question: yes, I am interested in how YOU would play the hand and YOUR thought process, regardless of what MY thought process is.

Sizing:
- I still think the flop sizing is on the small side. I am giving almost direct odds to an OESD to call, not even talking of huge implied odds even to hands like Q9. I mean I would not put in a huge raise here, but a little bigger.
- turn sizing definitely sucks as it may well fold draws and pair/two pair hands, and leaves no room to fold if shoved over. 2/3rd to 3/4 pot would have been much better: enough to get stacks in OTR by leaving a 0.5-0.6PSB behind and also it makes it a clearer fold when shoved on to by the nuts.

Raising the limper preflop is an option, but he is a complete station who limps/calls 61%, folds to cbets only 46% (which is low considering is 71/1 preflop stats) and goes to showdown 35% which is also huge considering his wide range). We would also have to fold to any kind of bet he makes postflop. So meh to raising 44, I prefer to keep the deep stacked SB and BB in and set mine.

It's likely that we have the top of our range on the turn, and that also makes me want to call.

So what else is in Hero's range? I can only think of Q9 (AQ, KQ, 99 raise the limper preflop, other Qx do not raise the flop). But you're right that if he has Q9 in our range, then that would make him more likely to shove KQ.

np

Originally Posted by daviddem

...I think 99, JT and KQ are the most likely hands here...

i'm following you on 99/JT, but struggling a bit with KQ

why do you feel that a "pretty decent winning player" would be calling a raise and a reraise on a mutliway flop w/ TPGK?

Originally Posted by daviddem

MMM, I think I have shown over my past 1000 posts that I know my math and have been clearly showing my lines of thought. As I said, I wanted to see what ranges people were coming up with before I gave mine.

Yes, exactly, which is why I couldn't understand the omission. Also, I don't see the benefit of letting us guess at what you've already thought on, unless you think we're all just yes-men who will support whatever you say without creative analysis.

Originally Posted by daviddem

No offense meant, but I also think the range you gave does not make much sense (KK, QQ raise preflop, 9x does not call the flop raise and/or do not shove the turn, and he is bluffing about 0% of the time here).

Which is why if I just try to assign ranges based on my experiences of FR play at anonymous tables, there could be huge oversights.
I'd never be surprised to see slow-played KK,QQ or even AA just about any time. I don't think I'd see too many bare 9x hands after the flop, but A9, K9, will hang along for a draw.

Originally Posted by daviddem

I don't really get your last question: yes, I am interested in how YOU would play the hand and YOUR thought process, regardless of what MY thought process is.

But my strategy is to play extremely TAG. I'm never limping on the BTN, never over-calling a min-raise on the BTN and never over-calling a 3-bet from any position. I'd fold or raise 44 here, so your line is clearly a part of a strategy that employs tactics I don't use.

The way Villain's respond to you is going to be pretty different than how they'd respond to me.

So my strategy would be to make it 5x the first time the betting came to me pre-flop. If there was a 3-bet, I'd fold to anyone but (maybe) the BB, who's really deep and able to pay off, and I'm on the BTN.

When checked to OTF, I bet just over half-pot, as I'd bet with any TPTK/overpair on a not too scary board in a multi-handed pot.

When Villain raises OTT, I'd say his range is never a made straight or a better set. Villains don't raise made hands at my tables until the river, as a general rule. So his range is basically all hands I have crushed and I'm jamming over. If he shows JT, I take a note on Villain's line... totally unnecessary, since I'm not going to forget this villain's line today and the note will disappear as soon as he leaves the table.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

But my strategy is to play extremely TAG. I'm never limping on the BTN, never over-calling a min-raise on the BTN and never over-calling a 3-bet from any position. I'd fold or raise 44 here, so your line is clearly a part of a strategy that employs tactics I don't use.

I think you meant overlimp on the BTN.
Excluding all these options from a strategy just because you think it's the best way to play is a huge error. There are many situations where you should overlimp the BTN, overcall raises, overcall 3bs(especially super tiny ones like this). Folding 44 at any point pre is such a MASSIVE error and raising is not much better then calling if it's even better at all.

If you can't think of one situation to do any of these things then you need to start thinking about why and when you can.

Since I never limp the BTN, over-limping is clearly covered.

I'm not by any means claiming that the following thought processes are correct, but I'm throwing them out there for criticism.

I think that being the aggressor IP is more important than card value more times than not. As such, if I have any value in my hand (~41% PFR), I'm going to raise a field of limpers who already told me (by limping) that they do not have a strong hand. If I don't have any value in my hand, then I'm folding, obv.

I'm never calling (or over-calling) a min-raise on the BTN. If they are capable of raising more than min, then they have just told me they have a less-than-strong hand. Same as a limp. Furthermore, they have defined their pre-flop ranges in another category (fold, limp, min-raise, raise ~3.5x), so I can narrow their post-flop ranges even more. In response, I 3-bet my entire opening range IP, fold valueless hands (same as limped pots).

I can see merits to over-calling a 3-bet IP w/ { QQ-99 }, maybe throw in { KQs,QJs,JTs }.

Any thoughts would be much appreciated.

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

np



i'm following you on 99/JT, but struggling a bit with KQ

why do you feel that a "pretty decent winning player" would be calling a raise and a reraise on a mutliway flop w/ TPGK?

He is calling a bet and a small 3b, but you are right that on this flop with KQ facing a 3b, there is reason to fold. What could be in our 3b range OTF other than sets? AQ would have raised preflop, maybe KQ and QJ if he thinks we would raise these, Q9, JT.

Against a 44,KQ,Q9,JT range, KQ still has 55% equity though, so it is not impossible he calls the flop with that, but very unlikely he shoves the turn with it imo.

Originally Posted by daviddem

He is calling a bet and a small 3b...

yeh, sorry - my bad.

BTW - good 2 c u back here daviddem - how are finding 2NL? Are you just on Party?

Originally Posted by bikes

that turn bet sizing --.-

This.