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 Originally Posted by daviddem
No what I mean is that we have to call 43% of the time when he bluffs. And since he bluffs only 30% of the time, and the entire other 70% of the time his hand beats us, then we have to call a shove altogether 43%*30%=12.9% to zero the EV of his bluffs.
Maybe you didn't get the point, but this is wrong. Betting 12.9% will not give his bluffs an EV of zero. This is part of what I meant in the above (long ass edited post) that you don't understand what the strategies are.
I have already spent too much time on this thread, but if you'd give what his bet size would be on the river, then I can come back at some point and show you why your math is wrong.
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