i honestly like a fold here. the range against which you have 32% has equal weighting of AA and sets. AA being the only hands in that range against which you currently have >22% equity. i think we need to discount AA to at least some degree because a winning tight reg at 25nl probably doesnt c/c, c/jam one pair hands like this on very wet boards. i dont have stove on this computer but i imagine that incrementally removing AA combinations from his range will see a sharp drop in your equity