2 Hands: TP3K and Trips3K vs 18/8/inf

Villain was 18/9/inf over 22 hands. The only read I had on him was from the first of the two hands with what he opened with (I realize this gives the result of his hand, but it's kind of necessary for the second hand's analysis.) He seemed generally fishy though.

Hand #1:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($9.75)
MP3 ($10)
CO ($12.63)
Button ($18.34)
SB ($10.54)
Hero (BB) ($10.40)
UTG ($9.21)
UTG+1 ($10.36)
MP1 ($6.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, J
6 folds, Button bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.20, Button calls $0.90

Flop: ($2.45) 5, 6, A (2 players)
Hero bets $1.40, Button raises to $2.80, Hero raises to $7.10, Button raises to $17.14 (All-In), Hero calls $2.10 (All-In)

Turn: ($20.85) A (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($20.85) 10 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $20.85 | Rake: $1.03

PF: Villain attempts to steal from the button and I 3-bet bluff him. I didn't have enough stats to justify this, but I wanted to either 3-bet or fold AJo. He calls.

Flop: I value bet here (villain's stats were 18/6 at this point and I thought he was fishy enough to call with worst hands) and in hindsight, I should have bet closer to pot due to the straight and flush draws. He min-raises my bet, which is probably where I should have folded, however, I proceed to get all my money in lol. This was not good poker, but I did it because the villain seemed pretty fishy.

I don't even know how to put a fishy villain on a range because of the randomness and poor valuing of hands.. Anyways, any bitching/telling me I'm an idiot will be greatly appreciated

Hand #2:

Villain showed up with A6o (highlight text to reveal hand), which kind of reinforced my view of his fishiness since he called a 3-bet with it PF.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($9.65)
BB ($10)
UTG ($12.63)
UTG+1 ($27.76)
MP1 ($10.49)
Hero (MP2) ($12.08)
MP3 ($10)
CO ($10.21)
Button ($5.94)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J, A
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.45, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.45, 5 folds

Flop: ($1.05) 5, A, 9 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.80, UTG+1 calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.65) A (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.90, UTG+1 raises to $6, Hero raises to $10.83 (All-In), UTG+1 calls $4.83

River: ($24.31) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $24.31 | Rake: $1.20


PF: I call villain's EP raise with AJo because I know that he values lower Aces too much. His range here is probably fairly tight with the exception of many Aces (A8+?).

Flop: TP3K and I proceed to bet for value. Vs a range of {55+,A8s+,KQs,A8o+,KQo}, I have 65.599% equity unless my range is inaccurate.

Turn: He checks to me and I bet for more value. He raises here and I think he has an Ace. Vs a r/r range of {55+,A8s+,KQs,A8o+,KQo}, I have 48.396% equity so I think I should have folded, although if you account for a couple bluffs/idiot hands it'll probably be slightly towards my favor.

Any input on mistakes in analysis would be greatly appreciated.

H1) You're getting like AQ to somtimes fold here pre.. I don't get bluffing here AT ALL. What worse calls pre? on the flop You're ahead of pairs, but whether you bet for value from them now or on later streets doesn't really matter besides that they can't bluff you. The lack of a plan preflop resulted in our hand being crushed by his range on pretty much every flop ;(.
H2) Fold pre. As played you kinda have to get it in on the turn..

Originally Posted by xpaand

Turn: He checks to me and I bet for more value. He raises here and I think he has an Ace. Vs a r/r range of {55+,A8s+,KQs,A8o+,KQo}, I have 48.396% equity so I think I should have folded, although if you account for a couple bluffs/idiot hands it'll probably be slightly towards my favor.

Any input on mistakes in analysis would be greatly appreciated.

The range you gave him already includes bluffs and idiot hands (66, KQ etc), and since we're talking post flop you rarely need 50% equity to make a profitable call anyway.

anyway

H1: pre would be fine if you can be reasonably sure hes both stealing from the btn alot and calling with worse alot...ie you arent 3bet bluffing, but 3betting for value. Apparently, its standard against this villain's button range since hes both opening wide and calling wide...but i dont feel like u knew that when u 3bet. In most other cases its a trivial call, since AJ has alot of value in calling. Generally, you'd want to 3bet bluff hands that you wouldnt love calling with. A4s might be a better hand for instance, or K8s.

cbet: bet more...draws, worse aces call, yatta yatta yatta

after being raised: put villain on a range. In the past, have you seen villains who have similar tendencies show up with like A2 here? How often do u expect them to show up with 55, 66, A6, A5, 65? Combo draws? In my experience its not a draw often enough or a worse ace enough to make me ever want to raise (though AT and A9 may be here occasionally).

H2: pre: using info u get from past hands is great. but you need to carefully consider what information you actually got. In that last hand, you found out that he'll raise the btn with Ax and call a raise in position...but you dont really know that hes opening the same hand in early position. I will open J7o from the btn given the right circumstances...but im almost never opening it from ep if you need an example.

I think pre is close between a call and fold. I'd call just cuz of position really...make no mistake that this is still an utg raise from someone that seems positionally aware who doesnt limp all that much over this 22 hand sample...so im never 3betting.

The flop is weird. I expect him to be cbetting here like all the time, and when he c/c's im pretty suspicious. His range seems to be mainly medium strength hands now imo, given that he's called a raise with A6o earlier, we know hes reluctant to just give up so i can lean towards betting the flop to get some value out of TT-KK type hands that didnt want to cbet an Ahi board...but other than that i dont see much reason to think he has a monster.

Turn: im getting it in all day. If he has like 99 or something...w/e. A9 maybe, but most hands worth anything bet the flop. I can see KK-TT do this sometimes now that its less likely u have an ace so im happy putting it in. Against sets we have like 7 outs, and against better aces we have 9 so im good. He'll also show up with spade draws every know and then.

H1: With pretty much no info on this guy and only 22 hands, I'm not 3 betting for value here since I have no idea if worse hands are calling often enough. AJ also ahs plenty value vs his Bu opening range most likely, dominates some of it and hel be c betting, repping a lot of the cards that smack your hand. I don't know why you want to either 3 bet or fold when your hand plays well vs his opening range and likely badly vs his continuing range. If you want to 3 bet bluff here then A: pick a hand that doesn't play really well vs his opening range and, B: pick a hand that isn't dominated and reverse implied odds riddled post flop vs his contionuing range to a 3 bet.

As played I'd bet the flop a bit harder and yuck I hate this spot when he raises, I think it's usually for value though and that he'll be calling with most worse aces and pps that he's continuing. Prolly a few draws and the rest two pair sets, AQ AK etc. I'd cry and fold the flopand ask myself wtf I was doing in this spot vs an unknown in a 3 bet pot with AJ.

H2: Fold preflop, he's not been raising that much so far and few villains are raising many hands you dominate from here. His range is likely just some PPs and shit like AQ AK AJ. Until we know he's actually opening wide from this position it's a very easy fold.

Never folding on this turn as played since I'd expect AQ AK to be jus c betting here a good chunk of the time. I'd expect to see some spazzes here for like QQ 9x fds etc. If he'd min raised again I'd be more worried.

Thanks guys. I'm still having a lot of trouble I guess figuring out the best cards for different bets. I felt like AJo was a "bluff" because I view it as a weak holding and I bet it as "if he raises, I fold; if he folds, I win; if he calls [this is the part I didn't really think about]". I realize now that vs his range in LP, it's actually good and when I 3-bet him, if he calls, I'm pretty far behind his continuing range so I kinda screw myself over with that 3-bet. I have to stop thinking so short sighted; I was thinking I'd take the pot down right then and there.

I have to get in the habit of thinking of why I'm betting, and if it's smart to make that bet. For example, if I bet as a bluff, I should be thinking "am I getting better hands to fold? Is it likely that he will fold x% of the time to a y sized bet to make it +EV?". If I bet for value, I should be thinking "am I getting worst hands to call? Am I ahead of enough of his range that this is a good value bet?". Etc etc etc...

the problem with the 3b is that you didn't have much reason to believe he was opening the BU light. his ATS number should be like 20%+ for him to have enough hands that we dominate to justify continuing OOP. even then, for reasons that carroterz highlighted, i'm usually gonna flat instead of 3b'ing unless he's really fishy and will continue with tons of dominated stuff (like A9o and crap), i'm in like a HU match or something and i've 3b a few times before or something like that, or if he's super tight/nitty and i just feel like abusing him with 3b bluffs with any two blockers that aren't good enough to flat with as much massive ev-ness as 3b'ing.

then again, there are some players who 3b medium strength hands in ATS spots religiously.