10nl underpair v shorstacker shove

Short stacker is 43/30 with 1/5 fold to c bet over 30 hands BB is 24/12

Preflop and flop play super standard.
On the turn a bet is retarted so its between c/c and c/f

So we need (2.97/(2*.95*2.91+3.11))*100%=~34.4% equity

Basically he can do this with a ton of value hands for sure, but because of his low fold to c bet (lol sample tho) I feel he will be getting to this turn with a much wider range than just value hands and because of how stack sizes work out he's just going to shove a high enough % with his air/fd part of his range to make this a call.

And so no1 screams at me to just stove it:

Hand 0: 34.881% 34.88% 00.00% 1412 0.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 65.119% 65.12% 00.00% 2636 0.00 { 88, 33, AQs, Ah3h, As2s, KQs, QJs, T8s, 98s, 86s+, AQo-A9o, KQo, QJo, T8o, 98o, 87o }

Thoughts?


Merge No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Merge Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($11.74)
BB ($14.56)
UTG ($22.89)
Hero (MP) ($19.44)
CO ($4.30)
Button ($6.92)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J, J
1 fold, Hero bets $0.40, CO calls $0.40, 2 folds, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25) Q, 3, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.93, CO calls $0.93, 1 fold

Turn: ($3.11) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO raises to $2.97 (All-In), Hero calls $2.97

River: ($9.05) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $9.05 | Rake: $0.45

It's meh. Fold I guess.

when he shoves he has so many Qx and 8x in his range that should be a snap fold. even if we put in his all Axhh and Axhh in his range and its still a fold since you have no equity to call.

you need at leat 33% equity to call this and his shoving range it something like AQ,KQ,QJ,33,88,A8,89,78, Axhh,Axss and vs that you have 29% equity. you can add some more crappy OESD,FD but for every crap like that you'll have to add some more Qx and 8x crap and it's still a fold.

Pretty sure this is by no means a snap fold. Like that range you posted has soo little bluffs and then its still really close to the equity we need. I don't know what OESD ur talking about adding but theres definitely a bunch of bs in his range here as well. Like what I'm saying is he's going to show up with Axo and KT some of the time too so when you add that to the range I think its edged out toward calling.

Anyone else in the calling camp?

Originally Posted by Razvan729

when he shoves he has so many Qx and 8x in his range that should be a snap fold. even if we put in his all Axhh and Axhh in his range and its still a fold since you have no equity to call.

you need at leat 33% equity to call this and his shoving range it something like AQ,KQ,QJ,33,88,A8,89,78, Axhh,Axss and vs that you have 29% equity. you can add some more crappy OESD,FD but for every crap like that you'll have to add some more Qx and 8x crap and it's still a fold.

OESD= open end straight draw

this more make sense to shove then KTo, KJo,A9o or other stuff you put in his range.

if you wanna make a range that gives you call, by all means you can assign even 72o in that range.... fishes or not, they are not that stupid to shove every time pure air on that board, sometimes they will,but not enough to count them in the range.... i dont see any good player calling here vs this guy w/o reads and a good sample on him.

you think his a moron cause he is 43/30 in 30 hands?! think numbers... 30%PFR*30 hands is 9 opening hands and 43% VPIP*30 hands is 13 hands....

so i sit at the table and i get EP an AK,one AJ and one AJs and i open, MP i get 2 times PP over 77 and i open, LP i get some Axs or some suited brodways and i open another 4 times, then i call 3 openings in LP or blinds with PP or good SC's and all of sudden i am 43/30 over 30 to you when acttually i am 13/10 over 5k hands but i just hit a good run on hands now.... wow villains said, he is a fish, fck him, calling him light and betting into him light is gonna make a lot of money, wow i have a fish... and all i did is play the hand i was dealt, good hands . lucky me...

you think him as a fish, but your making a mistake cause the sample is too small and you have no reads ( gave none here)


33% pot odds and 29% equity... how can you say it's close when you always loose money here?dont say for balance or any other crap, cause that means shit at the micros.. balance yourself after 50nl

1. I wasn't asking what OESD stood for, I was mentioning that there are no possible OESD's on board.

2. We may have a very small sample, but the biggest indication this player is a fish is his stack size. Put a stack less then half with his pf stats and we have a fish like 95% of the time.

3. Your comment " they are not that stupid to shove every time pure air on that board, sometimes they will,but not enough to count them in the range...." makes little sense to me. Because of above reasoning we can be pretty sure he's a fish. He may only bet his air a small % of the time, but if he bets a large number of hands a small % of the time it can make up a significant portion of the time it can make up a large part of his range. His low fold to c bet number indicates alot of his range on the turn can be air, and if he bets those hands some of the time an accurate range must be weighted by adding an appropriate portion, of the air in his flop calling range to his turn shoving range. These added combos will give us the additional equity we need.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

OESD= open end straight draw

this more make sense to shove then KTo, KJo,A9o or other stuff you put in his range.

if you wanna make a range that gives you call, by all means you can assign even 72o in that range.... fishes or not, they are not that stupid to shove every time pure air on that board, sometimes they will,but not enough to count them in the range.... i dont see any good player calling here vs this guy w/o reads and a good sample on him.

you think his a moron cause he is 43/30 in 30 hands?! think numbers... 30%PFR*30 hands is 9 opening hands and 43% VPIP*30 hands is 13 hands....

so i sit at the table and i get EP an AK,one AJ and one AJs and i open, MP i get 2 times PP over 77 and i open, LP i get some Axs or some suited brodways and i open another 4 times, then i call 3 openings in LP or blinds with PP or good SC's and all of sudden i am 43/30 over 30 to you when acttually i am 13/10 over 5k hands but i just hit a good run on hands now.... wow villains said, he is a fish, fck him, calling him light and betting into him light is gonna make a lot of money, wow i have a fish... and all i did is play the hand i was dealt, good hands . lucky me...

you think him as a fish, but your making a mistake cause the sample is too small and you have no reads ( gave none here)


33% pot odds and 29% equity... how can you say it's close when you always loose money here?dont say for balance or any other crap, cause that means shit at the micros.. balance yourself after 50nl

my fault w/ OESD, but the rest... is silly.... 1/5 fold to cbet you consider a good indicator?! anyway, if that your opinion, i have nothing to add. shorts stack doesnt mean dumb, some play short as a strategy and there are a lot of articles about short stack strategyes and a lot of good players that play short stacked.

anyway, like my signature says, just my opinion. your choice in how and to who you lose your money.

even as a short stack, he is not shoving less then FD there and by math above it's a fold.

dont listen to me, i am not a great player and my experience is just 350k hands, but if i were you i would listen to luck and ask him to explain me why, cause he is a good constant winning players and his opinion is very good.

besides all these, i really dont think that you will find here any good player that will tell you to call this.

1. There are good players who play with less then half a stack, but they are all tight. This guy's stats indicate that it is highly unlikely he is that tight.

2. He will shove less than a FD here some % of the time, which if air is a big part of his range on turn, will have an effect. you should read : http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es-187077.html

3. This may be a fold, but even notice how Luck things it is much closer than a "snap fold" as you put it. You are probably right here, you clearly have far more experience than me, but there could still be flaws in your thought process that thinking about what i'm saying with an open mind could make you get rid of.

-Probably coming off way harsher than I am meaning to.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

my fault w/ OESD, but the rest... is silly.... 1/5 fold to cbet you consider a good indicator?! anyway, if that your opinion, i have nothing to add. shorts stack doesnt mean dumb, some play short as a strategy and there are a lot of articles about short stack strategyes and a lot of good players that play short stacked.

anyway, like my signature says, just my opinion. your choice in how and to who you lose your money.

even as a short stack, he is not shoving less then FD there and by math above it's a fold.

dont listen to me, i am not a great player and my experience is just 350k hands, but if i were you i would listen to luck and ask him to explain me why, cause he is a good constant winning players and his opinion is very good.

besides all these, i really dont think that you will find here any good player that will tell you to call this.

Also @ rav was just looking through that hand Petul~ posted and look what I saw,

" I remember a razvan hand pretty identical to this one except it was at 5nl. He put villain on the stone cold nuts (boats), but at this level you've pretty much got to account for a bunch of crap in villain's range as well. "

Like your prob right in this hand but I feel the fact that you dont put crap in peoples ranges is a leak for you.

that hand was a nut straight i had on paired turn where villain 3 bets me AI and i wasnt sure if he shoves T trips there, or even if he has enough T trips so i would make the call based on pott odds and equity vs his range ( full houses and T trips), there was no talking about crap like air/TP . dont compare trips with complete air or TP on paired boards. and i had the second nuts on board, not JJ on Q88x board. there is a huge diff in those hands by board texture, table dinamycs, villains, etc

That's a fold. My read is tripple 8s. Maybe he freaks out after that 8 on the turn and he's holding a Queen with a good kicker but its a fold for sure.

What did you do?

I'd say his range looks something more like this, which gives us 30% equity and is a fold. Throwing some spaz into his range might get you a coinflip but I don't think it's a great idea versus a vetual unknown. We can also probably take out a bunch of his spade draws because a short stacker would have probably shoved those on the flop.

QQ-JJ,88,33,AQs-ATs,Ah9h,As9s,A8s,Ah7h,As7s,Ah6h,As6s,Ah5h,As5s,Ah 4h,As4s,A3s,Ah2h,As2s,KJs+,Q9s+,JTs,AQo,A8o,A3o,KQ o,Q9o+

c/c or just jam yourself.

@ supahole i really think he gets to the turn with enough air to put atleast a few combos of spazz into his range.

@ bikes really glad someone else thinks c/c'ing turn is good. could you elaborate on why we would jam here? He the 8s in his range are ahead now, as well as queens obviously, you think there are enough small pps that are calling in his range to make it fine for value?

Originally Posted by bikes

c/c or just jam yourself.

i bet my BR that Bikes is being ironic, there is no way you can find here a realistic range that gives us enough equity to call. and jaming has no point since vs villain we have no fold equity here.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

i bet my BR that Bikes is being ironic, there is no way you can find here a realistic range that gives us enough equity to call. and jaming has no point since vs villain we have no fold equity here.

ship me your br plz.

meh looks ok
why does the hh say CO raises all in?

Somewhere in the transition from merge network > my PT > website my hhs are always getting messed up. Whenever i post on wt you cant even see the hole cards

Originally Posted by thelorax

meh looks ok
why does the hh say CO raises all in?

come on bikes, what range do you put him on , a realistic range, for him shoving here?

Bucket, what's CO's AFq?

You think we cant look at a fold to 1/5 cbet, but you want to look at AFQ? I mean its only 30 hands so i think it will be pretty useless, but I won't post it either way because I dont really want to look to skew the way we have been looking at the hand 1 way or the other. Bikes and thelorax are solid winning regs who dont mind a call, maybe you should give weighted ranges a bit more thought?

if you dont trust AFq in 30 hands why the hell do you trust rest of stats? i wanna see the AFq, the real one.


i respect both bikes and thelorax opinion and i know i am way behind them as a poker player, but also, both of them plus the rest of good players here thought me that poker is a math game. i respect theyr opinions, but i wanna see what range they put CO on, they both gave none.

this is not about you or this hand, i may also get into this kind of spot and i am always folding, if i should call i want arguments, as in ranges for this type of player, so i could be convinced to call.

i want the AFq and a >33% equity range from them for my money and for me to learn.

i cant find a good realistic range to call here. maybe i am dumb, but i want a range to be convinced of that not just an personal opinion, with all the respect for both players that say call is ok.

Using supahaole's range:

Originally Posted by supahaole

QQ-JJ,88,33,AQs-ATs,Ah9h,As9s,A8s,Ah7h,As7s,Ah6h,As6s,Ah5h,As5s,Ah 4h,As4s,A3s,Ah2h,As2s,KJs+,Q9s+,JTs,AQo,A8o,A3o,KQ o,Q9o+

We've got 25.67% equity, but need like 48% to call.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

Originally Posted by Razvan729

if you dont trust AFq in 30 hands why the hell do you trust rest of stats?.

my guess is that AFq takes a hell of a lot more than 30 hands to have ANY statistical meaning to us what so ever. the sample is simply too small. that said, i don't use either AF or AFq in any way at the tables or in post-hand analysis. so i'm no expert on the stat.

that's your opinion on stats rpm, but the hand? what your range and how you play it?

Oh you guys and your absurdly nitty ranges for absolute randoms who are pretty much shoving any two cards here because "zomg half my stack is already in the pot"

Originally Posted by Donachello

Oh you guys and your absurdly nitty ranges for absolute randoms who are pretty much shoving any two cards here because "zomg half my stack is already in the pot"

QFT

Id call, get shown AA and spike a J for the river fist-pump.

In all seriousness id call but not be super happy about it.

The ranges in this thread are too tight for some short stack clown who could have JTo here as much as AQ! I mean is he a 'decent' shortstacker (ie has some idea of what hes trying to do or some loose/passive who just sat

why i dont like calling:

if he is passive, then he is shoving only 8x afraid of FDs

if he is the aggresive jackass type that shoves air/ FDs/ underpairs we would already have some sort of read on him, these kind of players dont wait 30 orbits to act stupid and OP has no reads on him.