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10NL Rush, TPTK deep, raise or call turn?

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  1. #1

    Default 10NL Rush, TPTK deep, raise or call turn?

    Villain is 15/9 with AF 5 over only 33 hands. No read on him but his stats look kinda taggy.

    On the flop, I probably should have raised bigger but tbh I'm not comfortable playing one pair this deep and I don't want to get all-in. Is that reasonable since we're deep? Then he b/c's oop which is weird, not sure at all what that means.

    On the turn, his bet looks like a blocking bet so I think he mostly has the flush draw, but the J is a little scary too, he could now have top two, or possibly be making a suck bet with a monster. If we were 100 bbs deep, I think I'd raise big here, but now I'm not sure. So I decided to just call and keep it small, and call or bet any non-club river. Not sure if that's right, but his odd play has me suspicious.

    Pokerstove says we're probably flipping against his range on the turn. What's the right play here? Call and reevaluate river, or raise big?

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    saw flop

    BB ($23.83)
    UTG ($10.48)
    Hero (MP) ($26.66)
    CO ($8.74)
    Button ($10.26)
    SB ($8.71)

    Preflop: Hero is MP with K, A
    1 fold, Hero bets $0.30, 3 folds, BB calls $0.20

    Flop: ($0.65) 5, A, 5 (2 players)
    BB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.60, BB calls $1.10

    Turn: ($3.85) J (2 players)
    BB bets $1.40, Hero ?

    Here's all the range stuff.

    Preflop, he's only cold-called once so that doesn't say alot, but just to cover everything:
    any pair, any suited ace, suited broadway, AJ+, KQ, and suited connectors

    By the turn, I put him on JJ, AJ+, 5x, or any flush draw. That's down to 3.9% of hands and we're 49% against that range.

    Board: 5c Ac 5s Js
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 49.169% 40.80% 08.37% 736 151.00 { AsKd }
    Hand 1: 50.831% 42.46% 08.37% 766 151.00 { JJ, 5c5d, 5c5h, 5c5s, 5d5s, 5h5s, AdKd, AhKh, AdQd, AhQh, AdJd, AhJh, Ad5d, Ah5h, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6d5d, 6h5h, 5d4d, 5h4h, 4c3c, 3c2c, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKc, AhKs, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs }
  2. #2
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    He probably has fewer flush draws than that, especially the low-mid suited connectors.
  3. #3
    Yeah, he wasn't acting right for the hands I'm normally beating. It made me nervous, even though I have a great hand for that dry board. He could definitely have the flush draw but I felt like I had alot of reverse implied odds, and I do think he'd play a monster this way.

    So I call the turn. River is Tc, completing the flush, and he shoves pretty quick, which was a 3x overbet. So I was like, well he had the flush draw. But maybe he had a monster and was hoping I had the flush draw. Who knows. I'm ok with the hand even tho I played it pretty weak. Villain's play is unusual tho for two big stacks going up against each other at 10NL rush, often there's a courtesy notification raise and the other guy just gives it up.

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