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 Originally Posted by xpaand
Thanks daven. What should be the way I think about it during play to figure out that I should have folded the turn and river. I mean obviously a lot of draws just became made, but if we are folding here every time vs a villain with these stats, aren't we gonna lose some EV in the long run (maybe not +EV, but LESS -EV).
ok, thing is that you state villain isn't stupid. This turn would be a pretty stupid place for him to bluff at 10nl cos he expects you to be calling with all sorts of shit, like, he could have AsQh types of hands that he thinks are ahead, and if not then redraw, but he is mostly doing it for perceived value with some QT/JT, some sets (unlikely) and some flushes and straights. Thing about turn is that if you're calling here then you're going to get into silly pot odds spots on the river. Calling here is also weird cos you don't have a plan for what to do when villain shoves a blank river...
some nits say that a bad fold is better than a bad call. I tend to make a lot of calls, many of which are bad when i realise i'm ahead of about 10% of villain's range. I notice that my winrate goes up when i call less, make of that what you will...
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