A 10NL busto set.

Here's a hand that made me sick yesterday.

Villain is 17/14/4 over 218 hands. No notes on the guy, assuming he has been playing pretty std. Blinds are nitty so I don't think he's calling me with too many implied odds hands. I may be wrong?

This seems to be a recurring theme atm - I don't connect well with flops and when I do, this shizzle happens! How is my bet and turn sizing? I was betting big to charge draws for calling but PT3 says I'm giving him pot odds of roughly 2.2:1. Should I have overbet the flop? His fold to cbet is 50% but that's 1/2 occasions. I'm not sure of the kind of pot odds I should be giving him or how to work that out.

With a turn like this, do I continue such aggression? In these kinds of situations I tend towards the b/f option as I fear I am almost always behind when I c/c. In this case I think my bet should have been smaller (was mistakenly still in draw charging mode) so that I don't lose so much when I fold to a raise, and it may also encourage him to raise over my bet and let me know he's got the nuts. (Would it also encourage him to bluff over me?!) Would $1.30ish be better?

Otr, I figured it was pointless to bet. A small bet would just look weak and I would beat nothing that called anyway. When villain shoves, I assume this is an instafold as I am almost always beat here.

Thoughts are much appreciated.



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

Hero (UTG) ($11.33)
MP ($19.54)
Button ($10.55)
SB ($6.80)
BB ($12.83)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10, 10
Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, Button calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.95) K, Q, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, Button calls $0.75

Turn: ($2.45) J (2 players)
Hero bets $2.10, Button calls $2.10

River: ($6.65) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $7.30 (All-In), Hero is sick

pre+flop look good. cold possibly go a bit bigger on the flop because villain either has a decent 1 or 2 pair or pair+draw hand and is calling, or has 22-88 and maybe like 54s-98s and is folding. i'd probably check the turn due to "it's so rare that anything worse calls", though i'm unsure of the validity of that logic. as played, i can't see myself calling this river.

I think if you choose to bet/fold the turn a smaller sizing would be more +EV as it might get value from 2 pair. Checking and seeing what he does seems better, if he bets figure out his range and whether you have pot/implied odds to draw to the FH.

Obviously fold river as you beat nothing.

Thanks for the input guys. Definitely agree the turn bet should have been smaller.

So if I was to check and evaluate, what kind of bet size am I happy to call?

I have 9 outs to the FH, 1 out to 4 of a kind, so my chances to hit on the river are 4.6:1 against. Some strange maths may follow but I'm trying to work this out.

So considering just pot odds, this will be bet/(pot+bet) i.e bet/(2.45+bet). If I hit 22% of the time, then

bet/(2.45+bet) = 0.22
i.e. bet = $0.69

If I include the implied odds of winning his stack when I hit, then it's bet/(pot+ rest of stack + bet). Thus

bet/(2.45+9.40+bet) = 0.22
i.e. bet = $3.34

Does this make any sense? I don't know whether I'm going off on a ridiculous tangent. If this is correct, am I happy to call bets under $3.34?

Obv the larger the bet, the more often it needs to work and I need to be able to get his stack in. But would psbs be fine to call?

this hand is obv standard on every street. fold river

Ok, so just had a chat with Carrots about this hand, please excuse the formatting.

Regards calling with implied odds hands and pot odds:
[28/08/2011 18:06:08] Barb: dont assume these guys are ever thinking lilke that
[28/08/2011 18:06:28] Barb: hes prolly jus playing set ranges vs ypou including any pocket paiors and likely the better suited connectors
[28/08/2011 18:07:17] Barb: so giving someone 2.2:1 pot odds is usually fine
[28/08/2011 18:07:24] Barb: if you bet pot you give them 2:1
[28/08/2011 18:07:36] Barb: and the odds of making say a flush on the next card if he has the draw are like 5:1
[28/08/2011 18:07:54] Barb: so you can see how that creates an unprofitable situation for him without having huge implied odds
[28/08/2011 18:08:06] Barb: over pots is anywhere from 2:1 to 1:1
[28/08/2011 18:08:10] Barb: depending how big you make iot
[28/08/2011 18:08:36] Barb: if he can win the hand on later streets or win a big chunk of your stack by hittingn then he can still call profitably
[28/08/2011 18:08:41] Barb: but you cant do anything aboiut that
[28/08/2011 18:08:51] Barb: jus make it as unprifitable as you can ofor him to take a passive line with a draw
[28/08/2011 18:09:03] Barb: dont start betting 4x pot incase he has a flush draw lol
[28/08/2011 18:09:17] Barb: remember you wanna extract value from draws since you beat trhem 2/3rds+ of the time
[28/08/2011 18:09:36] Barb: not force him to fold them along with a bunch oif 2nd best made hands which you crush

Turn/river:
[28/08/2011 18:10:40] Barb: I wouldnt ever bet this turn
[28/08/2011 18:10:46] Barb: you cant get value from worse hands now
[28/08/2011 18:10:51] Barb: any Ax at all makes a stright
[28/08/2011 18:10:53] Barb: or any 9
[28/08/2011 18:10:58] Barb: hes jus not calling with 2 pair anymore
[28/08/2011 18:11:04] Barb: since hes a taggy nitty guy
[28/08/2011 18:11:15] Barb: just check and hope he gives you a price to mine a boat or checks back
[28/08/2011 18:11:29] Barb: like when he calls your turn bet he has a stright like 80% of the time
[28/08/2011 18:11:33] Barb: which is why you shouldnt bet the turn
[28/08/2011 18:11:37] Barb: and river is just a snap c/f
[28/08/2011 18:11:40] Barb: as played

[28/08/2011 18:11:54] Mamo: ok
[28/08/2011 18:12:11] Mamo: so i tried to work out what kind of bets i could call on the turn if i checked, was i anywhere near along the right lines?
[28/08/2011 18:12:59] Mamo: and just to double check, was my flop cbet sizing ok then?

[28/08/2011 18:13:08] Barb: you have huge implied odds to win the rest of his stack if you call the turn
[28/08/2011 18:13:15] Barb: yeah flop sizing seems fine
[28/08/2011 18:13:43] Barb: the thing I hate about betting the turn is not only that youll jus foldout all his worse hands thatll check back anyways, but youll often get raised off the hand
[28/08/2011 18:14:01] Barb: if I bet the turn id bet like 1/3rd pot so he can call with worse
[28/08/2011 18:14:20] Barb: ifn this is a fishj then I guess you can get away with the line you took
[28/08/2011 18:14:31] Barb: since fish are less likely to raise the nuts here and also just call too wide
[28/08/2011 18:14:35] Barb: but vs this guy no
[28/08/2011 18:16:53] Barb: when you bet the turn you give up the oppertunity to stack Ax a huge amount of the time
[28/08/2011 18:17:24] Barb: but when we check admitadely sometimes we have to fold, but in those cases we've lost less than when we b/f, and often we get to see a river and be +EV with implied odds
[28/08/2011 18:17:26] Barb: defo check turn
[28/08/2011 18:17:30] Barb: Im certain now
[28/08/2011 18:17:43] Barb: and I think we hardly ever c/f the best hand on the turn vs this giuy
[28/08/2011 18:17:49] Barb: just no way he bets his 2 pair shit here
[28/08/2011 18:18:00] Barb: and Ax is also a huge amountm of combos

def bet the turn. it's not close

Originally Posted by bikes

def bet the turn. it's not close

Strongly disagree with that. Value bet is too thin imo vs this guy.

Originally Posted by bikes

def bet the turn. it's not close

Why?

Originally Posted by bikes

def bet the turn. it's not close

i've thought about this quite a bit now and tend to disagree.
what sizing would you suggest?

Originally Posted by daven

i've thought about this quite a bit now and tend to disagree.
what sizing would you suggest?

The smaller we make it the less monies we lose imo. I'd go with somewhere around $0, personally.