[FTR Quick Tip 013] Bet Sizing

Originally Posted by ImSavy

Don't vary your bet size based on the strength of your hand. That's why we play ranges and not hands. As long as we aren't giving him the odds to chase draws that's all that matters.

I have absolutely no idea why he's betting $2.25 and not like $3 though. Accomplishes all the goals of the smaller bet whilst getting more money into the pot. Allows him to bluff shove certain hands over the top of us and isn't going to fold out any more of his range imo.

That's not what I was saying. I was saying bet more to protect our hand against draws...not bet more because OMG WE GOT A SET!!

Hey guys,

This is a pretty good point you're bringing up about betting maybe a little bit larger on the flop on that QQ hand. But I think $3.50 is too high. If we bet $3.50 here, when our opponent shoves $11.19, there will be $20.44 in the pot, and it will only be $7.69 for us to call. So, we'll be getting about 2.65-1, which might not make our opponent think he has enough fold equity here to shove light.

So, I really thought maybe $3 would be the maximum we should bet here, but then I got thinking about the texture of the board and realized that there was only one OESD possible (JT double-gutter), and furthermore there was no Axs flush draw possible either. And even when our opponent has a FD or JT, there's a fair chance he will get it in with us on the flop, anyway. So this board was pretty dry, as far as draws go, and that led me to believe that a smaller betsize would be closer to correct and might get more action from things like pocket jacks or gutshots. On the other hand, our opponent could very well have paired the ace, but in that case it doesn't matter what we bet; he should get it in with us regardless. So, on balance I figured that betting smaller than $3 would be best here...maybe $2 is too low, but I think anything over $3 is too high.

I also was thinking about standard betsizes in a 4bet pot, wherein players routinely bet 1/3 of the pot as a cbet, when there's an SPR around 1.5ish. In a 3bet pot, where SPRs are more normally around 4.5, it is common for players to bet 1/2 pot. In the hand in question, the SPR is about 2, so it's in between the normal SPRs of a 3bet and 4bet pot, but closer to a 4bet pot. So, I figured that the "standard" line in this spot would be to cbet between 1/3 and 1/2 of the pot, but closer to 1/3, both because of the SPR and because of the fact that the board is pretty dry.

But, then we should consider our opponent also, and he looks pretty fishy, due to his stats, his stack size and his open-limp. However, we only have 13 hands on him, so it's not clear exactly how fishy he is. Therefore, we don't really know what his postflop tendencies are; they are likely bad, but we don't know what they are, so I'm not sure that this information helps us much in our flop bet-sizing decision.

On balance, I concluded that a small betsize around $2-$2.25 was good here, based upon SPR and board texture. But I can surely see a good argument for any betsize up to around $3ish here.

Originally Posted by Mike1013

Hey guys,

This is a pretty good point you're bringing up about betting maybe a little bit larger on the flop on that QQ hand. But I think $3.50 is too high. If we bet $3.50 here, when our opponent shoves $11.19, there will be $20.44 in the pot, and it will only be $7.69 for us to call. So, we'll be getting about 2.65-1, which might not make our opponent think he has enough fold equity here to shove light.

So, I really thought maybe $3 would be the maximum we should bet here, but then I got thinking about the texture of the board and realized that there was only one OESD possible (JT double-gutter), and furthermore there was no Axs flush draw possible either. And even when our opponent has a FD or JT, there's a fair chance he will get it in with us on the flop, anyway. So this board was pretty dry, as far as draws go, and that led me to believe that a smaller betsize would be closer to correct and might get more action from things like pocket jacks or gutshots. On the other hand, our opponent could very well have paired the ace, but in that case it doesn't matter what we bet; he should get it in with us regardless. So, on balance I figured that betting smaller than $3 would be best here...maybe $2 is too low, but I think anything over $3 is too high.

I also was thinking about standard betsizes in a 4bet pot, wherein players routinely bet 1/3 of the pot as a cbet, when there's an SPR around 1.5ish. In a 3bet pot, where SPRs are more normally around 4.5, it is common for players to bet 1/2 pot. In the hand in question, the SPR is about 2, so it's in between the normal SPRs of a 3bet and 4bet pot, but closer to a 4bet pot. So, I figured that the "standard" line in this spot would be to cbet between 1/3 and 1/2 of the pot, but closer to 1/3, both because of the SPR and because of the fact that the board is pretty dry.

But, then we should consider our opponent also, and he looks pretty fishy, due to his stats, his stack size and his open-limp. However, we only have 13 hands on him, so it's not clear exactly how fishy he is. Therefore, we don't really know what his postflop tendencies are; they are likely bad, but we don't know what they are, so I'm not sure that this information helps us much in our flop bet-sizing decision.

On balance, I concluded that a small betsize around $2-$2.25 was good here, based upon SPR and board texture. But I can surely see a good argument for any betsize up to around $3ish here.

That's a fantastic post, thanks Mike.