[5NL] QJs in SB...hand played badly or bad river card?

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I want to c/r the turn because I feel I get an extra bet out of him as opposed to raising him on flop and pushing him out of pot.

I'm really not too worried about him having a GSSD and getting there with an A, K or T. So I'm not too scared of those cards. Plus, that's only a small part of villain's range. With an 85% cbet, he has a large percentage of air/marginal hands in his range, why would I want him to fold these?

Also, I would slow play a set in this spot as well.

Looks like you felt wrong, because if there ever was a card he would barrel here with air it's an A or K. And maybe when you check the turn you get an extra bet, but raising it makes no sense (fold all worse hands, no better hand folds, etc). If you want to follow up on your logic, why not flat his bet and let him 3-barrel the river?

Originally Posted by daviddem

Looks like you felt wrong, because if there ever was a card he would barrel here with air it's an A or K. And maybe when you check the turn you get an extra bet, but raising it makes no sense (fold all worse hands, no better hand folds, etc). If you want to follow up on your logic, why not flat his bet and let him 3-barrel the river?

Yeah, hindsight is always 20/20.

Also, he doesn't have to be bluffing. He might check the K if he had something like AQ/AJ. The K is one possible card that could come on the turn, if it was a brick, and he had AQ/AJ/KQ he might bet again, although he wouldn't have had the chance to if I had raised him on flop and he folded.

Less likely to fire the river if he is bluffing, also less likely to bet for value with a marginal hand.

If I raise flop, does he not also "fold all worse hands, no better hand folds"?

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

If I raise flop, does he not also "fold all worse hands, no better hand folds"?

No, he doesn't fold any queen, some strong jacks (especially with redraw possibilities like Jxdd or JT), T9, KT, etc.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

If I raise flop, does he not also "fold all worse hands, no better hand folds"?

Ofcourse all better hands continue, and some worse hands fold.

But the likely hands that will double barrel on this particular board are AQ+, 9T, KT and all of those hands will continue to your c/r.

A good portion of this above range will also bet flop and then check back turn.