Quote Originally Posted by daviddem View Post
I think 50% is still a lot unless he donks the flop 50% of the time with complete air. This kind of player seems unlikely to fold top/2nd/3rd pair or a draw imo.
As much as I like modeling hands and the EV of different options, the problem with taking the above analysis at face value is that it assumes that we always lose if we get called and don't hit the draw. That's hardly the case. These are the types of things you have to account for when using models like this.

Villain limp/calls a lot pre-flop, leads a lot of flops, and is very aggressive with top pair and up with multiple PSB's with TPNK on a previous hand. In this hand the guy limp/called pre-flop and lead the flop, but he checked the turn. This takes makes strong hands (TP+) fairly unlikely considering his tendencies.

We don't really care if he calls with 2nd pair or 3rd pair, which we have about 40% and 48% against, respectively. He has enough reverse implied odds on the river (ie: he improves to two pair, we improve to a straight) for our bets to be about break even on average against these hands.

We don't really care too much about Villain calling with draws because we beat most of those too. If we give Villain a somewhat pessimistic set of draws including all of the possible ace-high flush draws along with JT, J9, T9, T8, 98, 97 and 87 (all of diamonds), and then we give him QT and T9 for strong open-ended straight draws (even though there are a couple of other worse open-ended straight draws he could have that we're not including here), then we still have slightly more than 60 percent equity against his draws.