[5NL] FD, picking up OESD on T against aggro c/r AI

Agree we may not need that many folds, but his 13 Agg factor combined with his 69% vpip is, shall we say, worrying (unless he is the kind who minbets every time he has a chance).

edit: OP's homework: calculate how often villain has to fold for Hero's turn bet to be +EV, assuming Hero always wins the hand when he hits the straight or flush OTR and always looses otherwise. Assume no further river bet on either side for simplicity and conservatism.

Originally Posted by daviddem

Agree we may not need that many folds, but his 13 Agg factor combined with his 69% vpip is, shall we say, worrying (unless he is the kind who minbets every time he has a chance).

edit: OP's homework: calculate how often villain has to fold for Hero's turn bet to be +EV, assuming Hero always wins the hand when he hits the straight or flush OTR and always looses otherwise. Assume no further river bet on either side for simplicity and conservatism.

I have no idea how to do that.

This is what I came up with for the hand. Time for the slaughtering to begin haha;


Flop - A9s-A2s (Diamonds), 66-99, Kx, T9s, 97s, 75s, 54s, T9o, 97o, 75o, 54o

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

182,160 games 0.000 secs 36,432,000 games/sec

Board: Kd 6d 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.030% 49.85% 00.18% 90814 320.50 { QdTd }
Hand 1: 49.970% 49.79% 00.18% 90705 320.50 { 99-66, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KTs-K2s, T9s, 97s, 75s, 54s, KTo-K2o, T9o, 97o, 75o, 54o }

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Turn - KK+,JJ,88,66,AKs,KJs,AKo,KJo

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,716 games 0.001 secs 1,716,000 games/sec

Board: Kd 6d 8h Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.769% 30.77% 00.00% 528 0.00 { QdTd }
Hand 1: 69.231% 69.23% 00.00% 1188 0.00 { KK+, JJ, 88, 66, AKs, KJs, AKo, KJo }

I have added in a few hands that he could have possibly slow played and taken out anything below TP.

This is by far the weakest part of my game, please feel free to tear apart my ranges assigned to villain.