[2NL] JJ UTG...OOP in 3bet pot.

The point is, when you build a range, you should be careful about the assumptions you make. Doing stuff like excluding JJ+ because you have once seen him 3b very big with KK is risky because he may have had specific reasons to do so on that one occasion (for example if he was playing against a whale calling everything). Now if you have consistently seen him do that every time he had JJ+, then it's OK to exclude them.

To give you an idea, if his flop cbet range includes JJ+, his equity jumps to 66%:

Code:

Board: Qd 3s 4s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     66.468%      65.53%     00.94%              33087           472.50   { 99+, AsKs, AQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KQs, KsJs, QTs+, JsTs, AQo }
Hand 1:     33.532%      32.60%     00.94%              16458           472.50   { JcJs }

If you exclude JJ+, he still has 56%:

Code:

Board: Qd 3s 4s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     56.381%      56.38%     00.00%              19536             0.00   { TT-99, AsKs, AQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KQs, KsJs, QTs+, JsTs, AQo }
Hand 1:     43.619%      43.62%     00.00%              15114             0.00   { JcJs }

Even if we remove QTs, he still has 53%:

Code:

Board: Qd 3s 4s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     53.343%      53.34%     00.00%              16899             0.00   { TT-99, AsKs, AQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KQs, KsJs, QJs, JsTs, AQo }
Hand 1:     46.657%      46.66%     00.00%              14781             0.00   { JcJs }

Also ask yourself whether he would always cbet his flush draws (particularly the weaker ones) when he has the option of taking a free card. If the answer is no and we start removing flush draws from his range, then your equity gets worse. On the other hand if you include more cbet bluffs, for example his AK's, then your equity becomes 55%.

For me, it's still a fold OTF. We're OOP, there are an overcard and a FD on the board, he's got tons of Q's in his range, we are facing a semi-competent villain, our hand will rarely improve other than picking up a weak FD OTT, we will have to fold to all his turn barrels, his flop bet is big, etc