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[2NL] 6m AA OOP rivers nut flush on baby flush board

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  1. #1
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
    The percentage bet/(bet+pot) will tell you how often to bluff in all-in river spots to be unexploitable when you bet.
    Can you use this to work out how often to call if you are against an opponent that can bluff jam the river?

    So for example if the opponent bluff jams the river for 2/3 pot and you have 5 combos of the nuts and 5 combos of the 2nd nuts in your range which your obviously calling, then the bet/(bet+pot) would still come out at 0.4 (40% of 10 combos that your definitely calling) so would you add 4 combos of the 3rd nuts to avoid being exploited by folding too much?

    This just truck me when i was reading through this and is probably totally wrong but worth asking nonetheless.
    Erín Go Bragh
  2. #2
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seven-deuce View Post
    Can you use this to work out how often to call if you are against an opponent that can bluff jam the river?
    Yes and no. Yes because it does tell you how often you'd be calling to be unexploitable to bluffs, ie what your calling frequency would be if you're playing unexploitably. If your opponent is betting $2 into a pot of $3, he needs you to fold at least 2/(2+3) = 40 percent of the time to be profitable with a bluff. If you call with exactly 40 percent, then it's the same EV for your opponent to either bluff or check behind a bluffing hand that never wins at showdown.

    No because....

    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    If you call and win as little as 28% of the time, you will break even.

    You should call with any hand that will win at least 28% of the time.
    What MMM describes here is the optimal exploitative way of handling the situation. That just means making every +EV call possible and never making a call that's -EV in a vacuum. This is not always the same thing as being balanced (aka playing unexploitably).

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