[2NL] 6m AA OOP rivers nut flush on baby flush board

[spoonitnow]

Related to the difference between river spots and non-river spots:

The percentage bet/(bet+pot) will tell you how often to bluff in all-in river spots to be unexploitable when you bet. You take that percentage of your value betting range, and that's how often you should bluff. For example, if you were shoving 2/3 of the pot with 10 combinations for value, bet/(bet+pot) would be 40% and you would need to bluff with 40% of 10 combinations = 4 combinations for your betting range to be balanced.

With cards left to come in all-in situations, however, you can bluff much more often if you have good semi-bluffing hands because they can still win sometimes, and when they do win, they win a part larger than the one you're betting into. That's related to why you can (and usually should) be so aggressive like when you turn a backdoor flush draw with something like A J on Q 9 5 7 after continuation betting the flop.

This is why you choose semi-bluffing hands to bluff with before choosing hands with low equity earlier in the hand. On the river, however, showdown value is the important thing since you can't semi-bluff.

Of course, you should be more aggressive with your semi-bluffing in non-all-in situations too, but it was just an example.

[seven-deuce]

The percentage bet/(bet+pot) will tell you how often to bluff in all-in river spots to be unexploitable when you bet.

Can you use this to work out how often to call if you are against an opponent that can bluff jam the river?

So for example if the opponent bluff jams the river for 2/3 pot and you have 5 combos of the nuts and 5 combos of the 2nd nuts in your range which your obviously calling, then the bet/(bet+pot) would still come out at 0.4 (40% of 10 combos that your definitely calling) so would you add 4 combos of the 3rd nuts to avoid being exploited by folding too much?

This just truck me when i was reading through this and is probably totally wrong but worth asking nonetheless.

[spoonitnow]

Can you use this to work out how often to call if you are against an opponent that can bluff jam the river?

Yes and no. Yes because it does tell you how often you'd be calling to be unexploitable to bluffs, ie what your calling frequency would be if you're playing unexploitably. If your opponent is betting $2 into a pot of $3, he needs you to fold at least 2/(2+3) = 40 percent of the time to be profitable with a bluff. If you call with exactly 40 percent, then it's the same EV for your opponent to either bluff or check behind a bluffing hand that never wins at showdown.

No because....

If you call and win as little as 28% of the time, you will break even.

You should call with any hand that will win at least 28% of the time.

What MMM describes here is the optimal exploitative way of handling the situation. That just means making every +EV call possible and never making a call that's -EV in a vacuum. This is not always the same thing as being balanced (aka playing unexploitably).