[2NL] 6m AA OOP rivers nut flush on baby flush board

[davisrei]

Villain is 25/21/3.5Agg, fold to 3b 33% (1/3), 92% cbet, fold to cbet 33% (1/3)

Discuss best way to get the rest of the money in.

edit: as a sidenote, I'd have a hard time rivering a nut flush with AA if it was not a baby flush board... dumb me

Okay, metagame time.

How has the game been progressing before this?

What is the villain's table image?

Had he been putting constant pressure on you on the flop and/or turn?

Does he often raise if you check to him?

Has anyone caught him bluffing?

Has he won a hand recently against an air bluff?

Has he been "keeping the table honest?"

Is he mad over a recent loss, or did he just win a big pot with thin value?

Is he willing to bet for thin value that you've seen?

Does he seem capable of making a tough fold, or does he get invested in his hands by the river?



What is your table image?

Have you been a rock the entire time at the table?

Has he seen you make several tough folds recently?

Has he seen you raise the turn, then c-bet, to then c/f the flop a lot?

Have you been caught bluffing recently?

Have you caught anyone bluffing recently?

Has he seen you make a hero call against anyone recently?

Have you recently had a run of good cards that didn't go to showdown?

Has he seen you bust anyone out with solid holdings?


Think about all of this, then ask yourself...

If I raise, will he see it as a possible bluff with a marginal flush?

If I raise, will he have a hard time folding a middle flush?

If I raise, will he see me as a rock, and fold anything but K ?

If I check, will he see this as weakness and attempt to bluff me with two-pair or a weak flush?

If I check, will he be conservative with a middle flush and check behind me?

If I raise a small amount, will be be more likely to reraise with a middle flush?

If I raise a small amount, will he be conservative and call or fold behind me?


Basically, the more invested he gets in his hands, and the more distrustful he is of you, the more you should raise on the river. If he respects your raises, or tends to see checking as weakness, then you should be more inclined to either put in a small value raise or to attempt to induce a bluff by checking and indicating that the 4-flush board shut your hand down.

All-in-all though, you should be more heavily weighted toward raising than checking unless you have a good read that the villain likes to bluff a lot.